Death rate in Ukraine exceeded birth rate almost three times last year

The mortality rate in Ukraine in 2024 exceeded the birth rate by 2.8 times. The corresponding data were published by the country's Justice Ministry on January 31.

As Interfax-Ukraine reports with reference to the data of the Ministry of Justice, 495.09 thousand deaths and 176.69 thousand births were recorded in the country. Thus, the ratio of the number of deaths to the number of newborns is 2.8.

In 2016, the mortality rate in Ukraine exceeded the birth rate by 1.46 times, and in 2021 this indicator increased to 2.61 times. The increase in the gap indicates a worsening demographic situation.

Earlier, on January 19, Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksandr Dubinskyy, who is in a Ukrainian detention center on suspicion of treason, said that Ukraine's population could have fallen to 21-24 million people. These estimates are about half the official statistics.

On December 16, 2024, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson said that demographic indicators in Ukraine resemble an hourglass, where the narrow neck in the middle is occupied by men and women aged 18-24. He also said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) were suffering catastrophic losses amid a shortage of human resources.

Before that, on October 24, Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador for special assignments Rodion Miroshnik said that the demographic situation in Ukraine was approaching catastrophic.

In the same month, the Ukrainian government said that the country's population would shrink to 25.2 million people by 2051. It was noted that on January 1, 2022 the population was 42 million people, in July 2024 - 35.8 million. It is specified that 31.1 million people live in the territory controlled by Ukraine. Among the reasons for the population decline were the military conflict, low birth rate, increased mortality, migration, population ageing and others.