Road to Trump: US president prepares for first international talks
Donald Trump will hold his first international talks as the 47th President of the United States with the heads of government of Israel and Japan. Benjamin Netanyahu will arrive in Washington on February 5, while Shigeru Ishiba will arrive on February 7. For the US' closest regional allies, the meeting with Trump is crucial, especially given his recent statements. Izvestia tells us what the leaders of Japan and Israel will try to negotiate with the American president.
Official diplomacy
Trump began to implement foreign policy long before he officially took office. Due to the corresponding prohibition in the American legislation ("Logan Act"), it had an informal character and was actually carried out through emissaries, who were his confidants and allies.
Therefore, the arrival of the leaders of Japan and Israel, apart from the practical sense, will have a largely ceremonial significance as a symbol of special relations.
Japan: privileged status and new demands
"Trade wars", which Trump has repeatedly announced, will also affect the Land of the Rising Sun, even despite its status as the main American ally in the East.
Japan's economy is closely interconnected with the American economy. Therefore, any initiatives of the White House in this sphere will have a corresponding impact on the welfare of Tokyo. This especially applies to the revision of trade relations between the US and China. As Tomoko Hayashi, chief economic adviser to the Japanese government, told Bloomberg, raising tariffs on Chinese imports to the United States will lead to a drop in Japanese exports. This is due to the fact that Tokyo supplies the other side of the Sea of Japan with components (mainly microelectronics) necessary for the production of the final product.
In addition, the individual tariffs (in some cases they can reach up to 20%) will be global in nature, and thus may directly affect Japanese companies.
In Tokyo, this news was received warily. Japan's National Security Advisor Akihisa Nagashima said that manufacturers should prepare to change their supply chains.
As a "welcome compliment" ahead of the talks, Tokyo said it could invest in a new gas pipeline in Alaska that would carry U.S. LNG to Japan. The problem is that, without regard to all other risks, the cost of this project is approximately estimated at $44 billion - the length of the pipeline, according to the most modest calculations, will be 1,300 kilometers. As a result, the cost of fuel will hardly be acceptable to the Japanese side. For this reason, the initiative is still at the discussion stage.
Another $100 billion in American projects in the field of AI-technology is going to be invested by telecommunications giant SoftBank.
All this should convince Trump to leave Japan as a privileged economic partner.
According to Dmitry Streltsov, an expert at the Valdai Club and head of the Oriental Studies Department at the Moscow State Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the White House will respond with two demands: equalizing the trade balance and increasing defense spending.
- In light of the upcoming negotiations, it should be noted that the U.S. has a rather large trade deficit, which in the case of Japan is about $50 billion. Because of it, Trump will insist on raising tariffs on Japanese goods, while the Japanese prime minister will emphasize that Japanese companies create jobs in America and convince Trump to reconsider his decision to cancel the sale of an American steel company to the Japanese," the expert suggests. - In addition, Trump will demand that Tokyo increase its financial contribution to its own security.
The US task is to make Japan pay more, this also applies to increasing the country's contribution to the maintenance of US bases, the agreement on this was signed under Biden, and Trump is unlikely to revise it. He will insist that Japan must defend itself and spend more money on armaments without relying entirely on American aid, Streltsov argues.
- However, under Prime Minister Kishida, Japan decided to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. In addition, Tokyo continues to buy American weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and fighter jets. In turn, it is important for Ishiba to make sure that the United States fulfills its obligations to protect Japan in case of, for example, a conflict with China over the Senkaku Islands," the publication's interlocutor said.
Tomahawk cruise missile
According to Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the United States and Canada, in addition to the obvious goals, there is another aspect - denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
- In my opinion, Trump expects to somewhat revise the role of Japan for the subsequent "détente". "If we leave aside the demands for increased spending by Tokyo on its own security, we can assume a discussion of some form of access to the American nuclear umbrella," he suggests.
Israel: it's complicated
For Benjamin Netanyahu, the upcoming visit to Washington is of defining importance. For a whole host of reasons, Trump's new Middle East policy will be seriously different from the previous one. Despite repeated statements of support for Israel, Trump has made it clear that he is not interested in continuing active military operations in the Gaza Strip. As US media wrote, in December, the US president-elect urged Netanyahu to end active hostilities before inauguration day. Whether this was actually the case is unknown, but for the time being, a fragile peace has been established in the region, with the agreement between the Israeli government and Hamas, which the Republicans were quick to declare a foreign policy success.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
The Western media say that another attempt to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia - that is, the first steps to restore the frozen "Abrahamic Accords" after the IDF operation in Gaza - will be on the agenda. Obviously, however, they will have to be preceded by an agreement on a permanent ceasefire.
In a formal invitation to Netanyahu, quoted by Israeli media, Trump wrote of the opportunity to "discuss how we can bring peace to Israel and its neighbors, as well as efforts to counter our common adversaries."
Meanwhile, helping Israel for Trump is not identical to helping Netanyahu, emphasizes Grigory Lukyanov, deputy dean of the Faculty of Oriental Studies at GAUGN.
- The lull in the Middle East is due to the fact that the parties to the conflict are waiting to see what the vector and nature of the development of American doctrine in the region will be. More depends on it now than a year ago. All the regional turbulence has already burdened all the actors without exception. For many months, everyone has been declaring their keen desire, keen interest to reduce this turbulence," the expert says.
Lukyanov believes that this is not directly related to any requests from the U.S., but it is related to expectations regarding the U.S. policy and its changes in the Middle East. At the same time, there are fears that with the enormous popularity that Trump has gained in Israel since his election victory, all political forces in the country see him as an ally, including in eliminating Netanyahu: "And Trump in this situation can easily withdraw support from the current Israeli leader," he concludes.
As for the US president's announced plans to withdraw US troops from Syria, Lukyanov notes the prematurity of any predictions.
- It can be said that regardless of whether U.S. military facilities in Syria will be preserved or not, this will not affect Israel's activity. There is no organized military force on the territory of Syria today that is able and willing to threaten Israel's interests - both its own territory and the occupied occupied lands of the so-called buffer zone," states the Izvestia interlocutor. - As for the U.S. itself, it is important to realize that its presence in northeastern Syria has been extremely beneficial so far, providing opportunities to influence not only the course of the Syrian conflict, but also Turkey, a very important but rather complicated partner in the NATO structure and Middle East policy.
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