Never say never: conservatives in Germany are moving closer to the far right

A political scandal has erupted in Germany shortly before the Bundestag elections. Conservatives from the CDU resorted to the support of the extreme right-wing Alternative for Germany (AdG) in the parliament, which had previously been considered unruly. Together, the parties pushed through an initiative to tighten migration laws. Experts have started talking about the beginning of a "new era" in German politics. Details - in the material "Izvestia".

No FRG chancellor has ever done this

Deputies of the Bundestag in Germany supported the draft resolution on toughening migration policy. The author of the initiative was the largest opposition faction of the German parliament CDU / CSU, which is leading in the polls before the planned February 23 early parliamentary elections.

The CDU/CSU bloc proposed a five-point document, including the introduction of permanent border controls, the possibility of refusing asylum seekers already at the border and the detention of foreigners who are obliged by the authorities to leave Germany. The initiative also suggests expanding the powers of security agencies and strengthening video surveillance in the country.

348 lawmakers voted in favor of the resolution, 345 voted against it, and another 10 abstained. The CDU/CSU managed to push the initiative through parliament with the help of deputies from the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the extreme right-wing Alternative for Germany. The ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and the Union 90/Greens, as well as the Left Party, were opposed.

The resolution passed is not considered binding on the German government. However, the vote showed that the idea of banning illegal migration has majority support, and also broke the taboo on cooperation with the AdG - some of its regional offices are recognized as extremist in Germany.

There has been a consensus in the German political establishment since the end of World War II not to partner with representatives of the extreme right. Now it has been undermined. Because of this, a political scandal has erupted in the country.

Friedrich Merz said shortly before the debate in the Bundestag that he "doesn't care who supports his initiative." Opponents bombarded him with criticism for this statement.

In particular, the resolution was condemned by the current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He emphasized that "the right to asylum is an integral part of the legal and value system of the FRG." "We have no right to undermine it," the statesman believes. Scholz also added that "it is impossible to go beyond the current European legislation" when talking about tightening migration policy.

"No German chancellor in history would have done anything like this: not Konrad Adenauer, not Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt, not Helmut Kohl, not Angela Merkel," the statesman emphasized.

The chancellor called cooperation with the far-right an "unforgivable mistake". After the vote, Olaf Scholz's SPD colleagues expressed their displeasure by shouting "Shame on you!" at Merz.

The conservative leader responded to the criticism by saying that the national law has an advantage if public safety and order are threatened.

"I want to ask you: what else has to happen in the FRG, how many more people have to be killed, how many more children have to fall victim to such acts of violence before you realize that there is a danger?" he addressed his opponents.

The outrage of opponents of tougher migration policy and the conservatives' flirtation with the far right was also supported by ordinary Germans. Hundreds of protesters gathered in front of the CDU headquarters in Berlin.

Meanwhile, the AdG did not hide its jubilation, noting that the adoption of Merz's initiative was a "historic moment".

Response to aggression

Friedrich Merz, a candidate for Chancellor of Germany from the CDU/CSU bloc, came up with an initiative to tighten migration policy after a 28-year-old man from Afghanistan attacked a group of children in the Schoenthal Park in Aschaffenburg, Bavaria, on January 22.

Two people died, including a two-year-old child, and several others were injured. The perpetrator had to leave Germany because he was denied asylum in June.

In 2024, German authorities have already taken a number of measures to tighten migration policy. From mid-September, Germany introduced border controls at all internal borders for six months. The decision to temporarily close the borders has irritated Germany's neighbors. In particular, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called it a "de facto large-scale suspension of the Schengen zone."

In the run-up to the early parliamentary vote, the CDU/CSU bloc made the fight against illegal migration one of the main points of its election program.

According to INSA polls, if the Bundestag elections were held now, the conservatives would win with the support of 30% of voters. The second place would go to the AdG with 22%, while the ruling SPD could collect only 15.5%.

What experts think

Natalya Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor of St. Petersburg State University, speaking to Izvestia, notes that the Christian Democrats are the most stable political force in Germany.

- Taking into account the factors of traditional voting and the failures of the SDPP, they have improved their positions. They have taken into account both the experience of migration policy and the growth of support for the AdG. Since the CDU/CSU bloc is a mainstream force, voting for which does not cause public condemnation, the Democrats will clearly improve their positions," the political scientist believes.

According to the expert, the AdG has been going to success for a long time and more slowly. But it is going.

- We can see it from the results of election campaigns. That's why their significant strengthening is predicted. But they still won't be able to compete with the Christian Democrats," the expert believes.

The analyst believes that the most successful option of the extreme right is to criticize the mainstream forces.
And the party leadership understands this. Now it is more profitable to criticize than to take responsibility for the decisions made, Yeremina stressed.

Artem Sokolov, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry, believes that it would be an exaggeration to perceive the scandalous vote in the Bundestag on tougher migration laws as a break in the firewall around the AdG.

"There are no formal consequences of the joint vote of the CDU, FDP and Alternative. On the contrary, Friedrich Merz can claim to have hijacked the agenda from the right-wing populists by trying on his laurels as the first fighter against the migration crisis. There are votes from the AdG, but it is not recognized as a full-fledged party," says the Germanist.

At the same time, he emphasizes that the very situation when the AdG votes determine the decision-making process at the federal level is new for German politics.

"This arrangement is poorly combined with the widespread demonization of the party and its supporters. "The Alternative has already managed to influence decision-making at the local level. But maneuvering in the Bundestag seemed a distant prospect. Suddenly time compressed, and the AdG got its long-awaited prize," the political scientist believes.

In his opinion, the reaction of the protest voter can go in two directions. The CDU really has a chance to rise in the ratings on the background of active actions to solve the migration issue. Given the slowness of the former "traffic light" coalition, Merz looks like a new Adenauer.

Artem Sokolov believes that the second option is that the partial recognition of the AdG by the political mainstream will affirm to pragmatic voters that the votes cast for it will not go to waste.

"The CDU's call to vote for the Christian Democrats as a respectable counterpart to the AdG could be perceived exactly the opposite - as recognizing the Alternative as the CDU without brakes. Ideal for troubled times," the expert summarized.

Svetlana Pogorelskaya, a senior researcher at the Institute of Scientific Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, notes in her Telegram channel that the debate on migration policy outweighs even the format of the pre-election struggle, and in many ways determines it.

"The political establishment tried hard to push the AdG out of the system. But this party got the go-ahead from the US. It is funny that it is Merz, a former rising star from the pleiad of "young savages" of Kohl's team, pushed out by Angela Merkel, is now making a move that finally changes the established political culture of the FRG," the specialist argues.

Political scientist believes that what has happened is the removal of another taboo of the old political culture of Germany. This is the first time that a party that considers itself centrist (CDU/CSU) has accepted the votes of the right-wing forces, which until recently were demonized and isolated.