Will California be able to secede from the United States. Parsing
Supporters of the secession of the state of California from the United States have begun collecting signatures so that the issue can be placed on the ballot for the 2028 election. The authorization for this was given by the state secretary Shirley Weber. How real is the emergence of a new state and who else wants to leave the country - in the material "Izvestia".
What procedure awaits California
- To petition for California independence was added to the ballot, the author of the initiative Marcus Ruiz Evans, an employee of the state Department of Transportation, needs to collect 546,651 signatures of registered voters until July 22, 2025. This represents 5% of the total number of votes cast for Governor Gavin Newsom (Democratic Party member - Ed.) in 2022. If these conditions are met, voters from a traditionally Democratic state will be able to answer the question, "Should California secede from the United States and become a free and independent country in 2028?" in 2028.
- The measure will be approved if at least 50% of registered voters turn out to vote and at least 55% vote in favor. If approved, a vote of no confidence in the U.S. would be passed and the American flag would be removed from all state government buildings, but it would not affect California's relationship with the U.S. or the state's system of government.
- The initiative would also create a commission to "prepare a report on the viability of California as an independent state." California will spend about $10 million to implement the idea, and the commission will require an additional $2 million a year to operate.
California is the richest and most densely populated state in the USA. According to the report on the development of the world economy of the International Monetary Fund for 2023, California is the fifth largest economy in the world, behind Japan and ahead of India and the United Kingdom.
- Evans called for California independence back in Donald Trump's first presidential term. Back then, the campaign was dubbed Calexit - similar to Brexit. The Republican's victory in the November 2024 presidential election was seen by supporters of the initiative as "an attack on everything California cares about." Evans believes the movement has a better chance of success now than it did eight years ago.
- However, the number of Americans who are ready to support California's withdrawal from the States is insignificant - about 15-20%. And even they treat the initiative as something abstract. First of all, the locals are trying to express their dissatisfaction with the policy of the new president of the country, Donald Trump, with this gesture. The same way Republican states acted under Democrats Joe Biden and Barack Obama, when they flirted with their own independence or sabotaged the decision of the federal center.
Who else wants to secede from the United States
- Before the arrival of Trump, Texas was actively in favor of secession. First of all, local residents were not satisfied with the migration policy of the federal authorities. In 2024, the Texas National Guard even took control of the section of the border between the United States and Mexico, prohibiting access to it by agents of the federal border service. The confrontation unfolded in the border town of Eagle Pass, where migrants who illegally cross the Rio Grande River, where the border between the two countries runs, are usually caught.
- In general, however, the state secession movement has existed in one form or another since the 1990s. Secession is a long-standing but not the most popular issue in the state. In 2023, the Texas Nationalist Movement, which favors independence for the "nation of Texas," collected signatures to place secession on the ballot in the Republican primary.
- The state Republican Party then rejected the petition, saying that most of the signatures were invalid(only 8,300 handwritten signatures were recognized as valid; the population of Texas is about 30 million people).
- Also calls to withdraw from the country sounded in Hawaii in 2023 against the backdrop of the situation with fires. Inaction of the authorities and huge damage complicated the already difficult situation in the state. However, the discontent of local residents did not lead to any concrete actions.
- In addition, discontent with the federal authorities is observed in the state of Alaska. According to a social survey in 2024, about 36% of local residents would support the withdrawal of the state from the United States. One of the key reasons for dissatisfaction is the non-utilization of natural resources. In particular, the state has filed a lawsuit against the administration of former President Joe Biden over restrictions imposed by the federal government on the development of oil and gas fields. However, Trump is set to settle the matter.
Whether it is possible to secede
- In 1869, after the Civil War, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states do not have the right to unilaterally secede from the Union. That is, there is no legal mechanism for secession from the United States.
- According to the court's ruling, the act of admitting a state into the union is final, "without possibility of revision or revocation, except through revolution or with the consent of the states."
- Even if supporters of independence for California or another state were successful in getting a secession question on the ballot, a referendum to secede from the U.S. would be illegal. Therefore, the likelihood that California or another state could secede from the US is extremely low. Even if this were to happen, the expert community doubts that other countries would take the risk of recognizing the sovereignty of the new state and thus spoil relations with Washington. Besides, such a precedent would become an example for other territories that would also want to use the international right to self-determination.
In preparing this article, Izvestia spoke with:
Victor Mizin, research fellow at the Center for International Security of IMEMO RAN;
Ilya Kravchenko, Advisor to the Director of RISI.
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