The average term of loans has fallen below two years

The average term of cash loans in December 2024 amounted to 23 months. This is the lowest figure for the last five years, according to the data of the United Credit Bureau (UCB), which were reviewed by "Izvestia" on January 29.

In addition, the average check reached Br147 thousand - both indicators have fallen by more than 20% since October, when the Central Bank last raised the key rate and tightened regulation. This means that the average overpayment on loans is shrinking, and because of rising rates, Russians are seeking to minimize spending on debt service as much as possible, economist Andrei Barkhota told Izvestia.

"The average overpayment on loans is shrinking, and because of rising interest rates, Russians are seeking to minimize spending on debt servicing as much as possible," Barkhota explained.

"The fourth quarter of 2024 saw the maximum tightening of regulation of consumer lending in the banking market, which, together with the increase in the key rate, had the strongest restraining effect on the dynamics of consumer loan issuance in the banking sector," said Dmitry Gritskevich, manager of banking and financial market analysis at PSB.

According to experts, from September 1, 2024 macro surcharges on unsecured consumer loans even with a low debt load (with APR <50%) have been raised and stricter macroprudential limits became effective from Q4 2024.

"At the same time, active lending to companies and individuals led to a marked decline in the capital adequacy ratio (H1.0) of the largest banks in the market by the end of the year. Given the prospects for the introduction of countercyclical surcharge in 2025, banks had to limit their activity in issuing capital-intensive retail loans," summarized Gritskevich.

Measures on the scale: Central Bank kept the rate due to 1.5-fold decrease in business loans

"Izvestia" found out what data became the reason not to raise the key - before that Nabiullina only hinted at a "significant" reduction in issuances

Earlier, on January 24, managing director of the NRA rating service Sergei Grishunin and director of ratings of financial institutions of the NRA rating service Natalia Bogomolova in a conversation with "Izvestia" predicted a reduction in the key rate in the second half of 2025. According to the experts, the process of rate reduction is expected to continue under the conditions of slowdown in lending and weakening of the Bank of Russia's regulatory requirements for short-term liquidity ratio.