Analyst assesses prospects for Azerbaijani gas supplies via Ukraine to the EU

Igor Yushkov, an expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and a leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, has doubted the possibility of starting transit of Azerbaijani gas instead of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe.

In a conversation with Lenta.Ru on Monday, January 27, he called such a scenario unrealistic, and the relevant statements, in his opinion, are made in order to delay time. Thus, according to him, when Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky (term of office expired in May 2024) "talks about Azerbaijani gas, he is just delaying the time". Azerbaijan has no problems with gas sales, but the country supplies everything it can to Europe, there is no extra gas there.

The analyst explained that Slovakia and Hungary have threatened Ukraine to refuse to extend anti-Russian sanctions at the EU level if it does not resume gas transit.

In addition, Slovakia threatens to cut off electricity supplies. Thus, Slovakia together with Hungary are quite resolute in their attitude towards Ukraine and declare it so.

Yushkov also pointed out that Azerbaijan does not have enough energy resources to ensure supplies via this route.

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Also on January 27, European Union (EU) diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas officially confirmed the extension of anti-Russian sanctions by six months. Hungarian Foreign Affairs and External Economic Relations Minister Peter Szijjarto said that Budapest had received the required energy security guarantees from the European Commission, without which it refused to extend sanctions against Russia.

On 27 January, Rada MP Oleksandr Dubynskyy, who is in a detention center on suspicion of state treason, said that Zelenskyy's idea to supply Azerbaijan's gas to Europe via Ukraine was unrealizable. He noted that the gas pipeline running through Ukraine can only contain Russian gas, aif.ru website noted. He explained that the essence of such a scheme can only be that Azerbaijan supplies its gas to Russia, and Russia supplies a similar volume to Ukraine, RT reported.

Because of Zelensky's statements, Dubinsky called him a "hypocrite" who once again deceives people, NSN writes.

On January 25, Zelensky said that he discussed the transit of Azerbai jani gas to Europe through Ukrainian territory with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at a forum in Davos. According to him, it is possible to export its "Large reserves" to Moldova and Slovakia, notes the website kp.ru.

"We can quickly sign a contract if there is political will," Zelensky is quoted as saying by 360.ru.

In Europe also questioned the realization of Zelensky's "plan". According to European experts, the first option is to supply gas through Russia or Georgia. The second is transit through the Black Sea, Life.ru reported.

On January 23, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations Peter Szijjarto said that the country is ready to provide its transit capacity for Slovakia so that Russian gas could flow to the country via the southern route. He also reiterated that Ukraine's decision to stop gas transit from Russia was unacceptable and jeopardized the energy supply to the whole of Europe.