Left in prolongation: why Hungary did not veto anti-Russian sanctions

Hungary did not veto the extension of the EU's anti-Russian sanctions, having received guarantees of energy security from the European Commission. This way, the country tried to protect itself from the risk of being left without Russian energy resources, experts believe. The extension of restrictions against Russia was agreed on January 27 at a meeting of EU foreign ministers. It was important for Brussels to show its unity in the face of Moscow in the situation of coming to power in the U.S. Donald Trump, who has not yet revealed all the cards on the issue of resolving the conflict in Ukraine, and ignores the EU leadership, analysts believe. Europe is also preparing for pressure from the US to increase military spending - officials in Lithuania and Estonia have already announced their intention to raise defense spending from 2-3% to 5% of GDP.

Energy security guarantees for Hungary

On January 27, the EU Council extended sanctions against Russia for another six months, until July 31, 2025. Previously, the anti-Russian restrictions expired on January 31. Hungary did not veto the extension, which the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban had said many times before.

As Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó explained, it agreed to extend the restrictions after receiving guarantees from the EU for the country's energy security. According to him, the European Commission undertook to protect gas and oil pipelines leading to EU member states. Szijjártó also specified that the EC is seeking from Ukraine to preserve oil supplies to the EU.

Hungary has been against the extension of the sanctions in recent months, explaining this by the economic damage that the restrictions have inflicted on his country. Orban estimated that as of January 2025, the losses of the Hungarian economy reached about €19 billion. At a December summit in Brussels, he warned EU heads of state that he would only decide to extend sanctions after Donald Trump's inauguration. However, a few days after taking office, the new US president made it clear that Washington would continue to use the sanctions as a lever of pressure on Moscow if it did not want to make a deal on Ukraine.

On January 11, it became known that the Ukrainian army attempted to strike the Russkaya station, which supplies gas to the Turkish Stream pipeline. Budapest condemned Ukraine's actions. Also, as of January 1, Ukraine stopped transit of Russian gas through its territory. Back at the beginning of the month, Budapest warned that this decision would lead to new price increases and create new problems for the competitiveness of Central Europe and the European Union. And so it turned out to be: exchange prices for gas in Europe are still above the $500 per thousand cubic meters mark. The level of gas reserves in the EU now stands at 57.6% of total capacity, well below last year's 74% and the five-year average of 66%.

After that, Budapest had no choice but to link the issue of extending sanctions to the resumption of gas transit through Ukraine and guarantees of energy security. Hungary receives Russian oil and gas at very favorable prices, and it is extremely important for Budapest to keep the existing contracts with Russia, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

- Hungary can get oil and gas by other means, but it will be many times more expensive," the expert said. - The Druzhba oil pipeline was built in conjunction with oil refineries. Besides, these refineries are configured for the Russian Urals grade, and if it is necessary to find an alternative to it, it will be necessary to mix oil grades to get the same characteristics as Urals, or to look for a similar grade. This will be more expensive in any case. Besides, we are talking about long-term contracts.

Igor Yushkov also noted that Hungary and Slovakia reserve the right to pressure Ukraine on the issue of gas transit, threatening, for example, to suspend electricity supplies.

- If earlier they were afraid to put these threats into action, fearing that Kiev would shut down the Druzhba oil pipeline, then with the current guarantees they have covered their backs and protected themselves from the risk of being left without Russian energy carriers," the analyst stated.

This time it was extremely important to at least formally receive guarantees from the EU to protect the transit routes of gas and oil, and especially oil, said Hungarian political scientist Gabor Stir.

- "If the EC openly demands from Vladimir Zelensky not to touch [oil and gas pipelines], there will be more chances that the head of Ukraine will listen and nothing bad will happen," he said in a conversation with Izvestia.

Trump's pressure on the European Union

Hungary is considered one of the main critics of anti-Russian restrictions in the EU. The effectiveness of the EU sanctions against Russia is also questioned by Slovakia. At the same time, the EU leadership is putting pressure on any country that opposes further tightening of anti-Russian restrictions.

It is not excluded that in case of disobedience on the part of Budapest, the EU could resort to economic measures of influence. For example, in September 2022, the EC has already frozen €7.5 billion for Hungary from the EU budget. Slovakia could face the same punishment: Brussels could withhold a portion of more than the €12 billion allocated to Bratislava in the EU solidarity fund.

- EU political elites are unlikely to want to lift the sanctions. Orbán technically had the option to veto, but the question was what Europe would be able to offer Orbán to get his consent. At least he tried to protect Hungary's interests. In any case, the country's consent would have been obtained, because no one in the EU needed such a scandal," Oleg Nemensky, a researcher at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.

However, it was more important than ever for Brussels to show its unity in the face of Moscow in a situation where the new Trump administration has not yet revealed all the cards on the issue of resolving the conflict in Ukraine. As Politico writes, for Kiev's European allies, Trump's threats to impose new duties and tighten anti-Russian sanctions were a "positive sign" amid the American president's criticism of the bloc.

The EU recognizes that the manners of governance of the administrations of Donald Trump and Joe Biden are very different. According to the same Politico, the White House's unwillingness to communicate with representatives of the community's governing bodies has become a "cold shower" for European officials. In particular, the new U.S. Secretary of State Marc Rubio left unanswered an invitation to participate in the meeting of foreign ministers of the countries on January 27, which "became a warning signal" for Brussels.

At the same time, Donald Trump's special envoy for the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, earlier allowed for the weakening of sanctions pressure on Russia in the case of a ceasefire agreement.

It is interesting to note that Europe seems to have already heard Trump's call for NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP instead of 2%. The Financial Times, citing Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, wrote that the Baltic states are ready to take this step.

"Of course, pressure from our strategic and largest ally in NATO is present. We cannot ignore these messages," Budrys said. According to him, from 2026 and at least until the beginning of the next decade, the Lithuanian government intends to spend 5-6% of GDP on defense instead of the current 2.9%.

It is possible that the United States under Trump may demand that European allies increase spending on military support for Kiev. At the same time, we should not forget that Hungary and Slovakia, in particular, are against military aid to Ukraine. On January 24, Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar said that Bratislava would not let the European Union assume the burden of military aid to Ukraine if US President Donald Trump refuses to help Kiev.

- Washington is determined to work with individual EU countries and will ignore Brussels if possible. At the same time, Washington under Trump will aim to seriously change the composition of European elites. This is evident from the statements of Ilon Musk, who can afford to say more than Trump," Nemensky noted.

In any case, the main tone of foreign policy in the EU is set by Germany and France, says Oleg Nemensky. And if there are changes in the leadership of these countries at the level of political elites, the EU policy will really change. In the meantime, there will be an increase in contradictions within the EU and its member states, the political scientist concluded.