A disappointing conclusion: why Israel is delaying the withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon

The truce between Israel and Hezbollah has been extended until February 18, but the planned withdrawal of Israeli troops from the border territories in southern Lebanon by January 27 has not taken place. An IDF source told Izvestia that Israel has notified the UN peacekeeping force of its intention to leave military personnel in a number of border locations.The Jewish state claims that the Lebanese army has failed to fulfill its obligations to disarm Hezbollah. Beirut, for its part, reported more than 500 violations of the agreement by the IDF. How the Shiite movement reacted to the delay in the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Lebanon and whether there are risks of re-escalation - in the material of "Izvestia".

The withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon has not taken place

The truce agreement between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite movement "Hezbollah" was extended until February 18, but thewithdrawal of Israeli troops from the border territories in southern Lebanon, scheduled for January 27, did not take place. The Israeli side explains its decision by Lebanon's failure to fulfill its obligations to disarm Hezbollah. A source in the IDF told Izvestia that Israel notified the UN of its intention to temporarily maintain its military presence in a number of border points in southern Lebanon.

Israel justifies the refusal to withdraw troops by the need to prevent the threat from Hezbollah. According to the official position, the Shiite movement has not only maintained its armament but is also trying to rebuild its forces in the border areas. Israel accuses the Lebanese army of failing to fulfill the terms of the truce, which called for disarming the militants and halting their activity near the Israeli border.

- "Israel has informed the UN Peacekeeping Force leadership of its intention to leave its forces at several specific points (hills and heights) in the border area, " the Izvestia interlocutor said.

The Times of Israel reported on Israel's decision to keep two reserve brigades on Lebanon's southern border. These units, according to the publication, are needed to monitor possible violations by Hezbollah.

The Israeli army officially told Izvestia that it continues to record violations by Hezbollah and intends to act within the framework of agreements with Lebanon, despite the Shiite movement's attempts to return to the southern territories. Among the violations identified is the group's continued possession of weapons depots with mortar shells and rocket launchers.

- The Israeli army remains deployed in areas considered dominant and controlling the axes of advance towards Israeli territory, in the western, central and eastern sectors. It still holds them and some villages adjacent to the border strip between Lebanon and Israel, " retiredLebanese Brigadier General George Nader, a Lebanese brigadier general, told Izvestia.

According to him, Israel has not honored the agreement, it has committed hundreds of violations, and the Lebanese authorities have also failed to do what was required of them in the deal.

Israel and Lebanon accuse each other of violating the deal

Northern Military District Commander Ori Gordin said on January 22 that Hezbollah had committed hundreds of ceasefire violations. In Knesset meetings, the Israeli military claimed that Hezbollah was maintaining weapons production in southern Lebanon and that the movement's fighters were present in places they were supposed to leave.

Lebanese authorities, for their part, however, reported 564 ceasefire violations by Israel. The Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper writes that since the truce went into effect on November 27, the Lebanese army has conducted 500 raids to inspect Hezbollah positions, dismantle their infrastructure and seize weapons. Citing a source overseeing the implementation of the agreement, the newspaper noted that the Shiite movement is fully cooperating with the Lebanese authorities.

- The Lebanese army immediately after the Israeli withdrawal from any position in the south, occupies it, making sure of course that the area is cleared of explosives and unexploded bombs to ensure the safety of returning citizens. The main guarantor of the agreement is the US, which oversees the implementation of the agreement on both the Lebanese and Israeli sides. In my opinion, events in the south will develop peacefully," said George Nader.

Most analysts agree that neither Israel nor Hezbollah are interested in a resumption of large-scale hostilities. The Shiite movement has been significantly weakened not only by Israeli attacks but also by the change of power in Syria, which has largely deprived Iran of a route for Hezbollah's arms supplies.

According to George Nader, Hezbollah today is not capable of fighting against Israel, instead it is playing on the sentiments of the population who want to return to their homes in the south of the country.

- This is their legitimate right, but it should be done in coordination with the Lebanese army, which, concerned about the citizens, does not allow them to enter areas containing mines and unexploded bombs," Nader said.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah said any deviation from the 60-day deadline would be considered a serious violation of the agreement and an infringement on Lebanon's sovereignty, "which the country will have to fight with all ways and means."

U.S. Special Envoy for Lebanon Amos Hochstein said back in early January that the implementation of the agreement was difficult but successful, and that Israel was withdrawing from southern Lebanon in stages as envisioned, moving from west to east.

This situation is complicated for Lebanon by the fact that the country is on the verge of forming a new government following the election of President Joseph Aoun and the appointment of former UN International Court of Justice President Nawaf Salam as prime minister.

Aoun's election filled the presidential vacuum that had existed in the country since October 2022. One of the new prime minister's main tasks will be to balance the interests of the religious communities while creating a government of technocrats to implement structural reforms.