The Americanist called California's initiative to secede from the U.S. a failure

The initiative to withdraw California from the United States is a failure - there is no mechanism for such a process in the state constitution. In addition, the state's dependence on the federal center is high. Malek Dudakov, an American political scientist, pointed this out in a conversation with Izvestia on January 27.

California's plans to leave the United States were reported by The New York Post. According to the media outlet, the "California Exit" initiative to separate the region from the United States has received authorization to legally collect signatures. If passed, the proposed measure - "Calexit," a reference to the Brexit vote in the UK - will be placed on the ballot for the 2028 election. For the measure to pass, at least 50 percent of registered voters must participate, and at least 55 percent - or more than 500,000 people - must vote yes by July 22.

"There is nothing serious about this initiative, it will obviously fail. This is not the first and not the last such initiative, including in California itself, especially there is no constitutional mechanism for leaving the American Union. Therefore, even if this referendum would theoretically end in success, there would simply appear a state-level commission that would have to study the issue of California's independence and nothing more," Dudakov commented.

According to him, theoretically, the U.S. can disintegrate only in the case of a major force majeure, such as civil war, nuclear conflict or the like. So, the expert believes, in the short term, the collapse of the American state should not be expected - the authorities in California are using this topic as a lever of pressure on Washington, as previously did the authorities in Texas. Then, explained the interlocutor of the publication, Texas sabotaged the decisions of the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden, now the pro-Democratic state opposes the Republican President Donald Trump.

"But California is very dependent on financial assistance from the federal center. While the state is certainly a big state, and they have a big economy, it's in crisis - and very different sectors of that economy - Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and the mortgage market in California - are not having the best of times. The recent fires have exacerbated the situation, and now it's all going to have to be rebuilt. Well, there is a huge $60 billion hole in California's budget, which has nothing to close but federal aid," the political scientist added.

If California were to secede, it would be a very problematic state. However, such scenarios remain hypothetical, Dudakov summarized.

The idea of Texas' secession from the US was discussed in 2022. Then it was planned that in 2023 the region would hold a referendum on independence. The corresponding bill, however, was not considered by the House of Representatives before the end of the session.

In July 2022, Valery Garbuzov, director of the Institute of the United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that separatist sentiments have always been present in Texas, which local politicians use to put pressure on the central authorities of the states.