Political analyst admits threat from Japan to Russia and China due to ties with the U.S.

Japan's desire to conclude a peace treaty with Russia requires a multifaceted approach - the situation is also influenced by the Ukrainian conflict and Donald Trump's assumption of the US presidency. Thus, there is a scenario in which Japan will become a threat to Russia and China. This opinion was shared with Izvestia on January 24 by Enes Karakhanov, chairman of the International Center for Combating Crime and Terrorism, international political scientist.

Earlier in the day, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Tokyo still aims to conclude a peace treaty with Moscow after the resolution of differences. Thus, the politician repeated the formulation that he had already voiced in an address to lawmakers in November 2024.

First, in his opinion, it should be noted that Japan, according to the ninth article of its constitution, actually has no army. This article prohibits the country from establishing formal armed forces and declaring war on other states. Second, Japan and the U.S. signed a Mutual Cooperation and Security Agreement in 1960, which lasted 10 years and was extended indefinitely in 1970.

"Third, despite having no formal army, Japan has a powerful arsenal and highly trained military personnel. Japanese nationalists have long perceived China's strengthening and the nuclear threat from the DPRK as serious risks," the expert added.

At the same time, Trump comes to office with the intention of persuading Russia to stop military action in Ukraine, and for his efforts he expects Moscow to reduce military cooperation with Beijing, the publication's interlocutor admitted. According to him, it can be argued that Trump is also carefully considering other possible approaches in the current situation - if he fails to convince the Russian side to stop hostilities in Ukraine, Japan could become a threat to Russia and China.

However, the political analyst suggested, Russia may respond positively to Japan's call for a peace agreement. He emphasized that this would contribute to the development of bilateral relations between Moscow and Tokyo.

Earlier, on January 20, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Moscow would consider restoring relations with Tokyo if the Japanese side backs up its initiatives with steps to renounce unfriendly actions. The Russian Federation is guided by the fact that there are politicians in Japan who realize the harm of the anti-Russian course, the ministry said.

The peace treaty between Russia and Japan was never signed after the end of World War II, in which Japan was on the side of Germany. Thus, in 1956, Japan and the USSR signed a joint declaration, according to which Moscow agreed to consider the transfer of Habomai and Shikotan to Tokyo, but for this it was necessary to conclude a peace treaty. At the same time, Japan itself did not give up its claims to all the islands of the Kuril Ridge.

The countries failed to reach an understanding on this issue. The Russian leadership's position is that Russia's sovereignty over the islands of Habomai and Shikotan is inviolable.