Experts predicted a key rate cut in the second half of 2025

Market participants predict that in the second half of 2025, the key rate may decrease slightly, as there is a high probability that the maximum inflation rate will be reached in April 2025, after which it is expected to decrease. Sergei Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, and Natalia Bogomolova, director of ratings of financial institutions of the NRA rating service, told Izvestia on January 24.

"The inflation peak will allow the Bank of Russia to cut rates into the 17-19% range, but the first reduction will be small - 19-20%. Inflation for the year, however, will remain at high values, now the NRA forecast is inflation of 7.5% on average for the year and 6.5-7% at the end of the year," explained Grishunin.

According to experts, the cost of attracting liabilities for a long time is at an abnormally high level, the largest banks, which are market drivers in terms of rates, were forced to raise rates, including in order to regulate their liquidity ratios, regional banks could not compete with them.

"We expect the process of rate cuts to continue in the context of slowing lending and weakening of the Bank of Russia's regulatory requirements for short-term liquidity ratios," Bogomolova summarized.

Not expected, but guessed: what's behind the Central Bank's decision not to raise the key rate

And how politicians, bankers and businesses have reacted to it

Earlier, on December 20, 2024, the Central Bank's Board of Directors decided to keep the key rate at 21% per annum. The regulator specified that there was a more significant tightening of monetary conditions than expected in October. At the same time, according to the Central Bank's forecast, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will fall to 4% in 2026. Since then, the key rate has not changed. The next meeting on the key rate of the Bank of Russia will be held on February 14, 2025.