Analyst gives forecast on strengthening of ruble exchange rate
Strengthening of the ruble exchange rate is short-term due to the seasonal weakening of demand for imports. Alina Poptsova, stock market analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, told "Izvestia" on January 23.
One of the reasons for the short-term strengthening of the ruble, the analyst singled out the period of tax and dividend payments, for which large companies sell foreign currency. At the same time, she specified that the high demand for ruble liquidity will support the rate of the Russian currency.
"The reason [for the strengthening of the exchange rate] may be the seasonal weakening of demand for imports. We also observed some weakening of the US dollar itself on the international market against other hard currencies, although it had a less significant impact on the ruble," the expert noted.
According to her, the reason for the weakening of the dollar last week was softer than the market expected, data on inflation in the United States, and at the beginning of this week the weakening was helped by the news that U.S. President Donald Trump does not plan a rapid and aggressive introduction of duties on imports from China, Canada and Mexico.
"As the new [US] president's plans for trade policy are realized and at the same time - narrowing the window of opportunity for the Fed to cut the rate due to the pro-inflationary nature of Trump's policy, the US dollar is likely to continue strengthening," Poptsova said.
The analyst added that for the ruble the key factors of strengthening remain the dynamics of export-import, sales of foreign currency earnings by exporters and the policy of the Bank of Russia in terms of interest rate changes and currency stabilization.
"In the perspective of the next few months, we expect the exchange rate to fluctuate against the U.S. dollar within 102-106, to the euro - within 104-109," - concluded the expert.
On the eve of the leading investment consultant of the service "Gazprombank Investments" Alexander Bagmanov and analyst of FG "Finam" Alexander Potavin told "Izvestia" that there are two reasons for the current strengthening of the ruble: the tax period and the seasonal decline in imports. According to Bagmanov, in the medium term, we should not expect a significant increase in the trade surplus, which has the greatest impact on the value of the ruble. This implies that further strengthening of the ruble is unlikely.
