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- At the start, attention, gas: Russians took cars on credit for a record 2 trillion dollars
At the start, attention, gas: Russians took cars on credit for a record 2 trillion dollars
In 2024, Russians bought cars on credit for a record RUB 2 trillion, the credit history bureau told Izvestia. People were in a hurry to buy cars, as they were constantly expecting their prices to rise due to sanctions and scrappage. The interest rates were 20-23%, but it was problematic to buy a vehicle without a loan . At the same time, the Central Bank has been trying to cool the market all year, and in recent months the measures began to have an effect. And in 2025 additional restrictions will be imposed on car loans, as a result, the issuance may decrease by 20-30%. Whether in these conditions dealers will make discounts on cars - in the material "Izvestia".
Credit to buy a car
Banks at the end of last year issued a record number of car loans to citizens - for the year issued 1.4 million such loans for 2 trillion rubles. Compared to the results of the previous year - 2023 - their number and volume increased by 60%. This follows from the materials of the "United Credit Bureau" (UCB), which "Izvestia" has.
Over the past year, the highest rates of issuance of loans for the purchase of a car were observed in March: 146.3 thousand for Br 216.2 billion. These figures became the maximum not only for the whole 2024, but also for the last six years. And the lowest - in December: 56.7 thousand loans for Br74.5 billion.
Indeed, the volume of car loans in 2024 was a record for the entire period of observation in this segment, confirmed "Izvestia" in the "National Bureau of Credit Histories" (NBKI). According to their data, 1.64 million loans worth Br2.3 trillion were issued last year - 60% more than in 2023.
Major banks also confirmed to Izvestia the growth in sales. At the end of 2024, Russians took over 362 thousand car loans for 484 billion rubles, which is more than twice the result of the previous year, VTB noted. The volume of loans increased by a third compared to the previous year, added Zenit Bank. Absolut Bank for the year increased car loans by 28% by the number of loans issued, by the amount - by 66%, said the organization. In OTP Bank reported: in 2024, the issuance of loans to buy a car increased by 3.5 times.
According to OKB, the average size of a car loan for the year remained at the level of 1.45 million rubles, and the term increased by six months, to five years and nine months. In most cases (63%) citizens took money to buy a new car, while the rest - to purchase a used one.
- Significant dynamics of growth in the issuance of car loans last year is primarily due to the effect of a low base due to the shortage of new cars in 2023, - emphasized Director of Marketing at NBKI Alexei Volkov.
Throughout 2024, the market was growing and kept on quite reasonable expectations of the consumer - "buy now, tomorrow will definitely be more expensive", said Nikolay Filippov, Director of Risk Methodology and Data Analytics at UCB. In particular, the authorities have announced in advance that they will raise the duty from October by 70-85% depending on the parameters of the car - and the amount of this payment is built into the cost of the car.
At the same time, according to OKB data, in December the rates on car loans were about 23%, while the key rate was 21%. For comparison, the full cost of a market mortgage is up to 30%.
In 2024, the greatest interest was noted in the cars of Chinese brands - Chery, Geely and Haval, noted in the GC "AutoSpecCenter"
At what interest rate auto loans are issued
But such artificial heating of demand always has its limit, explained Nikolay Filippov.
In addition, the Central Bank saw the risks in this segment - according to "Scoring Bureau", at the beginning of October, the volume of unserviced loans (90 + days) year on year increased by more than a third. Therefore, the regulator took measures to cool the market, in particular, introduced limits on auto loans to borrowers with high debt load.
- The growth of the key rate (up to a record 21% in October), the regulator's tightening of limits and the abolition of the moratorium on the maximum marginal cost of credit (MCC) made auto loans very expensive and inaccessible, - said Nikolai Filippov.
As a result, since the end of summer, the issuance began to decline. In December, in relation to the summer period, the market fell almost threefold, he shared. In addition, the cars did go up in price due to the scrappage fee and, as a result, became less affordable.
- Starting from October 2024, the average monthly volume of car loan disbursements began to decline, as a result, in the fourth quarter the market indicator was 44% lower than a quarter earlier- confirmed the head of the department of development of car loan sales of OTP Bank Andrei Zalish. - The fall in the segment began due to the cumulative effect of the regulator's actions.
What will happen to car prices in 2025?
The rate on car loans may reach 32-33%, according to Vitaly Kostyukevich, Director of Retail Products Department of Absolut Bank. Demand is already declining, as the aggregate of the cost of cars and interest on the loan makes payments prohibitively high.
Thefall of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies, as well as the increase in salvage duty push up prices for most cars on the Russian market, agreed founder of the service "Kredchek" Elman Mehdiyev. In his opinion, the borrower should pay attention to the measures of state support.
- The growth of car loans this year is unlikely on the background of high key rate and planned from the middle of the year quantitative restrictions on such types of loans, - believes the director of bank ratings "Expert RA" Anatoly Perfiliev.
Issuance of car loans this year will be 20-30% lower than last year, believes Vitaly Kostyukevich from Absolut Bank. Year to year we can expect a lower level of loans both in volume and quantity, says Nikita Kulagin, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Sovcombank.
Cars are now mostly bought on credit, so it is expected to reduce demand in this market. However, it is unlikely to provoke sellers to reduce the price of cars, as it is more influenced by other factors.
The increase in the utilization fee from January 1 will once again force to reconsider the prices of cars, believes Nikolay Filippov from OKB. In 2025, the cost of new cars will increase by 10-15% on average due to the tightening of the volatility of the ruble exchange rate, believes Andrei Terlyukevich, General Director of AutoSpecCenter Group of Companies.
On the other hand, dealers' warehouses are well stocked, which may spur subsidizing of credit rates - it will allow to take a loan on more or less acceptable terms, said Nikolay Filippov. In addition, sellers will start to stimulate demand, including with the help of credit programs from partner banks and automakers, summarized Andrei Terlyukevich.
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