Armenia's intelligence service says low probability of war with Azerbaijan in 2025

Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service considers the probability of a large-scale war with Azerbaijan in 2025 to be low. This is stated in the report of the agency, which was published by Armenpress agency on January 23.

"Based on the analysis of various facts, information and phenomena in this report at the time of publication, we do not assess the probability of a large-scale military attack by Azerbaijan against Armenia as high," the text reads.

At the same time, it is noted that under the current conditions, the risk of localized tension and escalation on the border of the two countries will remain.

The agency also considers it unlikely that the grounds for freezing Armenia's participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will disappear this year, the report says.

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Earlier, on January 15, Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan said that the country has no grounds for escalation of the situation with Azerbaijan. According to him, Yerevan has solutions to every problem and any issue can be resolved through negotiations.

Prior to that, on January 9, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan suggested that Azerbaijan abandon mutual claims. He presented a list of proposals "on establishing long-term stability in the world and the region."

Relations between the two countries have been aggravated, among other things, against the backdrop of disputed ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh. On October 5, 2023, Pashinyan signed a declaration recognizing Azerbaijan's borders, which included Nagorno-Karabakh.