In Moscow by the end of 2024 the number of transactions in the market of housing under construction fell by 25%

According to the results of 2024, the number of transactions in the residential real estate market in Moscow has decreased. According to the calculations of Metrium analysts based on the data of the Moscow Rosreestr, the number of transactions in the market of housing under construction decreased by 25%, ready apartments - by 16%. The number of mortgage loans issued decreased by 11%. "Izvestia" got acquainted with the information of experts on January 23.

In 2024, Moscow developers and shareholders concluded 87.1 thousand agreements of participation in shared construction (CDA), which is 25% less than in 2023, when the same indicator reached 115.6 thousand agreements. In December, Rosreestr of Moscow registered 9.9 thousand CDA in the capital, and thus the last month of 2024 became the second in the number of sales to shareholders after June, when 10.5 thousand agreements were registered. Compared to December 2023, the demand for houses under construction in the same period of 2024 decreased by 24%, but compared to November 2024, there were 37% more transactions.

"The decisive influence on the results of 2024 in the market of new buildings was the decision to terminate the program of preferential mortgages. About 40% of transactions in the market provided affordable loans for all borrowers at 8% per annum. And this instrument no longer works, which leads to a decrease in the number of transactions and the departure of some buyers from the market. However, it is important to note that the December figures were still high, i.e. there is a recovery trend in the market", - said Larisa Shvetsova, General Director of "River Park" LLC.

According to her, buyers are adapting to the difficult situation with expensive credit - they take installments, look for more affordable premises, intensify attempts to sell old housing, make alternative deals. All this stimulates sales in the segment of new buildings.

The company noted that in 2024, in total, borrowers received 120.9 thousand mortgages, which is 11% less than in 2023 - then the figure reached a record 136.2 thousand agreements. In December 2024, borrowers received 11.2 thousand home purchase loans, 16% more than in December 2023 and 27% more than in November 2024.

"Mortgage originations in 2024 have legitimately declined, while the market remains resilient. Buyers have restructured their buying strategies, especially if we are talking about the business class segment of new buildings, where customers have become more likely to take installments. There are many buyers in the market for family mortgages, the volumes of which are also high today. At the same time, installments help to avoid huge overpayments on the loan, but at the same time reduce the one-time burden on the family budget," added Igor Sibrenkov, Commercial Director of the "Osnova" Group of Companies.

At the same time, according to the company's data, in the market of ready-made housing (meaning apartments from private owners and ready-made new buildings from developers) in 2024 buyers concluded 146.2 thousand purchase and sale agreements. This is 16% less than in 2023 (175 thousand). In December, 17.3 thousand sale and purchase transactions were registered, which is 16% more than in December 2023.

"Ready-made new buildings are traditionally a scarce product in the primary market of the capital. According to the results of 2024, their share in the total volume of supply in "old" Moscow is 10.7% against 14.1% in December 2023. In my opinion, the indicator will continue to decrease. In 2025, mainly buildings and towers, the construction of which started in 2022, will be commissioned. And then the pace of bringing residential real estate objects to the market significantly slowed down", - said Dmitry Golev, Commercial Director of Optima Development.

Managing Director of Metrium Ruslan Syrtsov added that after the abolition of preferential mortgages and the rapid growth of market mortgage rates in the second half of 2024, demand is gradually beginning to recover. According to him, this means that the market is adapting to the realities of expensive loans, buyers and sellers are looking for new transaction mechanisms and eventually find them.

"However, excessive optimism would also be a premature mood in the market for now. It is necessary to understand what demand support measures the government can afford now. It is the decisions in the area of possible targeted support for buyers, expansion of existing programs will determine the development of the market in 2025," the expert concluded.

At the end of December 2024 Syrtsov told "Izvestia" that developers of mass and business segment projects in 2025 may continue to reduce prices, setting a discount on a wide pool of real estate lots. But, in his opinion, there will be no sharp price reduction, as developers need to fulfill their financial obligations to banks and maintain at least a small margin.