Experts named the reasons for the ruble strengthening

There are two reasons for the current strengthening of the ruble: the tax period and the seasonal decrease in imports. Alexander Bagmanov, a leading investment consultant at Gazprombank Investments service, and Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam FG, told Izvestia on January 22.

"The dollar is weakening amid concerns about the economic policy of US President Donald Trump, who has taken office. The whole world lives in anticipation of Trump's first really important actions, so uncertainty is at a very high level," Bagmanov explained.

According to him, in the medium term, we should not expect a significant increase in the trade surplus, which has the greatest impact on the value of the ruble. This implies that further strengthening of the ruble is unlikely. On the contrary, the national currency is likely to gradually weaken, reaching the level of 105-110 rubles by the end of the year. At the same time, a possible drop in oil prices may cause the exchange rate to exceed these values.

"There are key factors that will restrain the ruble's weakening in the coming months, such as: high ruble interest rates, restrictions on currency withdrawal from the country, significant ruble settlements for imports, and Russia's positive trade balance. Most importantly, at the beginning of the year there is traditionally low demand for foreign currency on the part of importers," Potavin said.

According to the expert, the approaching tax period also supports the ruble by increasing the supply of currency on the market in anticipation of the payment of taxes next Tuesday. Therefore, a local strengthening of the ruble is expected this week, which may end in the middle of next week.

"We believe that the USD/RUB pair will trade in the range of 98-102 rubles in the next month. In fact, the area of 100 rubles per dollar is comfortable for the budget, exporters and currency buyers. A new wave of ruble weakening is possible closer to spring," summarized Potavin.

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Earlier, January 21, head of research and investment strategies department of Alfa-Forex Spartak Sobolev in a conversation with "Izvestia" predicted the ruble exchange rate for the week. According to him, the Russian Central Bank has set the rate of the American currency at 99.9 rubles for January 22, the European currency - 103 rubles, the Chinese currency - 13.7 rubles. At the same time, according to Mosbirzhi, January 21, the yuan is trading at 13.6 rubles.