Tax amnesty will bring only 10 billion to the budget in 2025
The budget will be replenished by about 10 billion rubles in 2025 thanks to the tax amnesty for splitting, Alexey Krylov, an expert of the Council for Financial, Industrial and Investment Policy of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI), estimated for Izvestia.
In recent years, the tax authorities have been charging businesses about 10 billion a year for splitting. However, according to the CCI estimates, the total underpayment of the treasury from such violations is about 100 billion rubles annually.
The amnesty may bring additional 15-20 billion rubles to the treasury this year, agreed Associate Professor of Plekhanov Russian Economic University Yulia Kovalenko. She added that this will also be facilitated by the growing turnover of companies and the doubling of the "simplified" thresholds to 450 million: it will simply become less profitable for companies to violate the law.
"Although in the coming years the budget is unlikely to be significantly replenished thanks to the tax amnesty, but in the long term, companies will see the benefits of refusing illegal optimization and the number of honest taxpayers will increase," said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
At the same time, however, so sophisticated schemes of division are now being used that it is possible to uncover them and prove them in court only on the basis of operational work, and law enforcement resources are objectively limited, says Ekaterina Avdeeva, head of the Delovaya Rossiya expert center for criminal law policy and enforcement of judicial acts.
"There is a possibility that many companies will prefer to take an "ostrich position" and hide their heads in the sand. Perhaps a precedent case will be needed, as in the case of Blinovskaya and other bloggers", - said Ekaterina Avdeeva.
Read more in the exclusive material "Izvestia":
Sharing the case: the tax amnesty will bring only 10 billion to the budget in 2025
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