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- Half a pancake: the authorities missed 34 billion in the program of long-term savings
Half a pancake: the authorities missed 34 billion in the program of long-term savings
The authorities failed to reach the target for the Long-Term Savings Program (LTSP) - it was launched this year and was supposed to attract 250 billion rubles on the instructions of the president. As a result, the amount fell slightly short of the target. The Ministry of Finance told Izvestiathat 216 billion rubles came into the PDS . However, more than half of it is money transferred from the mandatory pension savings system and state co-financing. The Izvestia columnist discusses how to assess such indicators and whether there is a chance that the other target set by the President - 1% of GDP in 2026 - will be achieved.
Was it realistic to raise 250 billion?
Few people believed that the target of 250 billion rubles would be realized. The exception was the Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for the PDS in the government (its head, Mikhail Mishustin, was named responsible for its implementation). The same opinion was cautiously expressed by the Central Bank. True, it has long ago abstracted from the program, but its implementation indirectly rests on the shoulders of its wards - non-state pension funds (NPF).
The head of state himself did not consider this figure supernatural. "It's not a very big figure for the country, but it's a good place to start, and in 2026 this resource should grow to 1% of GDP, " he said at the forum "Russia Calling" in early December 2023. Since then, we admit, the situation has changed a lot, but we'll talk about that later. The president's words read: let's give it a try, and then we will see.
So, as the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia, by the end of 2024, the PDS will attract 216 billion rubles. Of these, new contributions (what citizens brought themselves, from their own funds) - 99 billion, the projected volume of transferred pension savings (funds that people transferred from the mandatory pension system) - 96 billion, and the projected volume of co-financing (state investment on the contributions of citizens) - 21 billion. Is it much or little? The question, as they say, is the point of view. From the point of view of the fulfillment of the President's instruction, it is obviously not enough. From the point of view of optimists - not enough, pessimists - more than enough.
Not a good year to start the program
Now let's return to the moment when the order was announced and the deadline for its fulfillment. To put it bluntly, 2024 turned out to be, to put it mildly, not too successful for the start of the PDS. It not only continued the trend of deposit rate hikes following the key rate, but also elevated the promised profitability of banks to the rank of almost extreme. The deposit market has probably never seen such a bacchanalia from credit organizations. Moreover, credit organizations, confident that the regulator will continue to increase its main instrument, promised more and more in advance.
Extreme rigidity of the Central Bank's monetary policy led to the fact that by the end of last year the promised yield on some deposits (on shares, of course) reached 30% per annum. With inflation in 2024 - 9.52%. For securities, where NPFs invest within the framework of the PDS, even in the best of times (and now the stock market is in despondency), this is a hefty return, and even so, it is time-consuming and fraught with risks. Especially since the regulator has restricted them very much in investing pension and other money. And in the case of banks, with a conservative strategy with a guarantee from the insurance system, it is just a resort.
Yes, it was at least risky to launch the PDS this year. But it would be at least strange to propose to postpone it after the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank for a long time (since 2015) have been developing, revising, etc. investment programs for the population, which could cover pension savings and become a source of long money. By the way, the same Central Bank has long been eliminated from the authors and promoters of the PDS. The head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina stood on the fact that the transition to a voluntary basis of the system will not allow to make it mass. And the Ministry of Finance was actually left as the instigator, organizer and enthusiast.
The ministry, by the way, does not believe that this year's program was unsuccessful, because it did not achieve its goal. Here is what the Ministry of Finance replied to Izvestia's inquiry: "250 billion rubles is a benchmark. It should be taken into account that although the PDS has been in effect since January, the most active phase began much later, after the approval of amendments to the Tax Code and the president's decision to increase the terms of co-financing contributions from three to 10 years."
On the phantom feature, the Central Bank also supports its colleague: "This is a very good result for a new product. When individual investment accounts appeared in 2015, the results of the first year were much more modest: about 100 thousand such accounts were opened, and the amount of investments amounted to about 5 billion rubles".
Will it be possible to achieve the parameter of 1% of GDP?
What's next, and what about 1% of GDP - which is already trillions of rubles? Personally, I have mixed feelings. First of all, NPFs have already vacuumed up the market a lot. I myself, when the largest financial holdings reported on the first results of the PDS, had a lot of fun. "We have concluded 200 thousand contracts", - reported one of them. For the sake of interest, I asked about the number of employees. Can you guess how many there are? Approximately the same ratios were reported by the second largest holding.
Then advertising and marketing came into play. For example, NPF actively promoted the strategy for people of pre-retirement and close to it age. After all, if you transfer savings to PDS, you can also start receiving payments at the age of 55 (women) and 60 (men). But unlike OPS, they will be extended for only 10 years, not 22 years. I wanted to do it myself, but got bogged down. By the way, this resource can be further exploited in marketing, as it is relevant even for younger people.
But in general, the tops have been gathered, the roots remain. It is much more difficult to get to them, and the administrative resource in the form of employees and their families can no longer be used. One should not hope that citizens will be disappointed in deposits either. Everything suggests that the period of high rates will last for a long time. Next year, at least, we should not expect a sharp decline. The Central Bank already ambiguously wrote in a commentary on consumer prices last December that they continue to rise. So the key rate is clearly not going to go down either. And the population has no incentive to leave convenient, risk-free and high-yield deposits for other instruments.
But the Central Bank, for example, hopes for increased competition in the NPF market; the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia that it continues to work actively with representatives of non-state pension funds, discussing what can be improved for PDS participants to make it simpler, more convenient and clearer. In general, the first pancake is half a pancake, and we'll see what happens next.
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