Kiev bargaining: the AFU is planning another offensive in the Kursk region
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are gathering combat-ready reserves near Suzhya, intending to attempt an offensive, sources have told Izvestiya. Thus, the enemy has replaced defense units with assault brigades. He has been trying to probe our defenses all January, but without success, military experts say. Political analysts are confident that a possible AFU offensive in Kursk region may be aimed at disrupting potential negotiations and demonstrating to Western sponsors the need for further military support for Kiev. What is happening in the Sujansky district and what actions the AFU may take there in the near future - in the material of "Izvestia".
What is happening in Suja
The AFU in Suja are forming a strike group to attempt another breakthrough, sources told Izvestia.
According to the interlocutors, in recent days dozens of armored vehicles (tanks, BMPs and APCs) have been transferred to the area of Suja, and units of the thero-defense were replaced by assault brigades. Since yesterday, the Russian Armed Forces have been inflicting artillery and aviation fire on this grouping.
The enemy has not stopped trying to improve its tactical position at the Kursk bridgehead since autumn, noted Lieutenant Colonel Roman Shkurlatov, Chairman of the Board of the All-Russian Organization "Officers of Russia," in a conversation with Izvestia.
- But there has indeed been increased enemy activity in the Sujan direction for several weeks now," he said. - The AFU has already made attempts to probe our defenses. The first time they hit in the direction of Bolshoye Soldatskoye in early January. All unsuccessfully, but the enemy did not introduce its main forces there, it was a "test run". Therefore, in the coming days or weeks there is a probability that he will try again. This is evidenced by the amount of forces that he has concentrated in the Kursk region. It is quite significant.
According to the expert, our VKS, artillery and unmanned units are now causing significant damage to the enemy.
The second attempt to test our defense was three days ago, military expert Gennady Alekhin told Izvestia.
- There are two main asphalted roads leading from Suja to Sumy region. One we control completely, the second - partially. Therefore, the enemy concentrates all its efforts on the transfer of its combat-ready units from the side of Sumy region. If in January in the battles from the Ukrainian side participated mainly in teroborontschiki, which suffered heavy losses, now they have begun to send to the battle trained assault units, which Chief Syrsky had long kept in reserve, - he explained.
In his opinion, the main task of the Ukrainian militants now is to establish fire control along the road Rylsk, Lgov, Kursk and move as close as possible to the Kursk nuclear power plant.
As military expert Viktor Litovkin explained to Izvestia, since civilians already know about it, it means that our command also sees that the AFU is pulling its reserves to this area. Therefore, it is taking the necessary measures to prevent a breakthrough.
- Now the AFU are laying down their men by the dozens without pity. They have already laid down more than 52 thousand in Kursk region and will lose even more. This affects the special military operation. They are removing people from the Kramatorsk direction, weakening the front there. Or Zaporozhye, Kherson. And ours are moving forward there thanks to this, - he summarized.
Economic and political reasons for the Kursk operation of the AFU
The Ukrainian side wants to show that it can seize the territory in Kursk region and hold it in order to bargain at the negotiations, if there are any, says Viktor Litovkin. But ours are not going to change Kursk region for some district of Kharkiv region and will not do it.
- The enemy sincerely believes that this is its main negotiating position, and it is trying to strengthen it. And the geopolitical situation has changed radically - for better or worse for us, it is not clear yet. But Trump became a full-fledged American president yesterday, and it is still unclear what his future actions will be. And for Kiev this is a time of opportunities to change something in its favor on possible peace tracks, which will be, - Roman Shkurlatov stressed.
There are also economic reasons. For example, there is a gas metering station on the border of Sujan district and Sumy region - Gennady Alekhin specified.
- Since January 1, we do not supply gas from there, and no one knows how the negotiations will end and what decisions will be made. But apparently, just in case, Zelensky is trying to keep such a trump card up his sleeve - bargaining over this vent.
How does the arrival of Trump affect the situation in Ukraine
Political experts believe that a possible AFU offensive in the Kursk region may be aimed at disrupting future negotiations and demonstrating to Western sponsors the need for further military support for Kiev.
Given Zelensky's intransigent stance, the Kiev regime can be expected to continue escalation, Alexei Zudin, a political scientist and senior lecturer at the Russian Foreign Ministry's MGIMO, told Izvestia.
- Trump's arrival is bad news for Zelensky, from the personal relationship between them to Trump's geopolitical preferences: the main problem for him is China," he said.
Zelensky may be under the illusion that the actions of AFU fighters in the Kursk region will strengthen his negotiating position, but in reality he will not be a party to the negotiations, political scientist Alexander Asafov told Izvestia.
Western countries no longer take him seriously against the backdrop of military failures. Therefore, the media side of the issue is important for the Kiev regime. It wants to show that it is still capable of fighting. For this purpose, the AFU fighters resort to terrorist methods and killings of civilians, the expert emphasizes.
- From the point of view of international law, Zelensky cannot be perceived in any way except as a war criminal," Alexander Asafov said.
How much equipment has been destroyed in Kursk region over the week
During the week from January 14 to 21, the "North" troop group of the Russian Armed Forces defeated the formations of the tank, heavy mechanized, four mechanized, two airborne assault brigades, a brigade of marines and three brigades of territorial defense of the AFU.
In addition, on January 17, the Defense Ministry reported the repulsion of an AFU counterattack in the direction of Berdin farm, by which the enemy tried to stop the Russian troops' offensive in the Kursk direction and break out of the blockade zone.
US-made M-2 Bradley BMP
During the same period, the AFU's losses amounted to more than 2,270 servicemen, 11 tanks, including Abrams, 12 armored personnel carriers, 58 armored combat vehicles, 118 vehicles, 19 artillery pieces, 18 mortars, four infantry fighting vehicles, including a US-made Bradley, an M777 howitzer, three electronic warfare stations, an armored recovery vehicle, as well as two ammunition depots and five UAV control points were destroyed.
A total of 63.2% (801 square kilometers) of the Kursk region territory (1,268 square kilometers) initially occupied by the enemy last August has been liberated.
