Commissioning of new buildings in Russia decreased to 56%

The commissioning of new buildings in Russia by the end of 2024 decreased to 56%. The negative trend was demonstrated by all million-strong cities with the exception of Kazan, Ufa and Chelyabinsk. The strongest reduction occurred in Krasnoyarsk - 56% and Samara - 48%. In Moscow it amounted to 40%, and in St. Petersburg - 37%.

These are the data of the analysis of new buildings analysts bnMAP.pro, who studied the primary market of Russian cities with a population of 1 million people and counted the number of new projects of new buildings, which went on sale in 2023 and 2024. The study involved all new building projects of all classes, with apartments and apartments, which went on sale in the specified period.

"The maximum increase in the number of new launches in Kazan - at once by 95% (in 2023, 41 buildings went on sale, and in 2024, 80 buildings at once). Ufa also showed a noticeable dynamics: 25 blocks in 2023 and 38 blocks in 2024, the dynamics amounted to 52%. Chelyabinsk showed a growth of 8%, but in absolute terms the change is almost imperceptible: 12 buildings started for sale in 2023 and 13 - in 2024", - says the study.

In all other Russian cities with a population of one million people, and there are 13 of them, a decrease in the number of new buildings for sale was recorded. The maximum decrease was noted in Krasnoyarsk, -56%, and the minimum decrease was recorded in Nizhny Novgorod, -10%. In general, a quarter decrease in the number of new buildings for sale was recorded in Russian megacities. In 2023 sales started in 882 blocks, and in 2024 in 658 blocks.

The projected number of apartments in the hulls that went on sale also decreased strongly in all but three megacities of Russia. The leaders in growth are Ufa and Kazan. Also a slight growth was recorded in Omsk.

In all other megacities of Russia there is a significant decrease in the projected number of apartments in new buildings, on average in million-strong cities the decrease amounted to 34%. A total of 153.5 thousand apartments are designed in 16 cities in the buildings that will be on sale in 2024. Their designed area is 7.4 mln sq. m.

Interestingly, both Moscow and St. Petersburg, which are the largest and most active markets of new buildings in our country, also showed a significant decline. For example, the projected number of apartments in the buildings that went on sale in 2024 in Moscow amounted to 31.8 thousand, which is 44% less than a year earlier. In St. Petersburg, the decrease amounted to 42%, and at the end of 2024, the projected number of apartments in the buildings that went on sale this year amounted to 16.6 thousand.

Also in Moscow and St. Petersburg there was a decrease in the number of buildings that went on sale. In St. Petersburg by 37% - 86 hulls, and in Moscow by 40%, 117 hulls in 2024 came on sale against 194 last year.

"In the current conditions, taking into account the market situation, current mortgage rates and the volume of supply at the exposition, we can hardly talk about the threat of forming a housing deficit. At the moment the supply of new buildings in megacities is sufficient to meet the demand. Therefore, we do not see any preconditions for a sharp rise in prices. The growth of demand - first of all in the mass segment - will be observed with the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank and the increase in the availability of market mortgage programs, because it is the affordable mortgage is the main driver of demand for new buildings. With a gradual decline in interest rates, the change in demand is also likely to be balanced without sharp jumps," Irina Dobrohotova, founder of bnMAP.pro, explained to Izvestia.

According to her, there is a probability that developers will continue to manage the volume of launches in order to distribute new volumes of apartments in realization in a balanced way and avoid overstocking.

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Earlier, on January 4, Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium, told Izvestia about the situation on the secondary real estate market in 2025. According to him, in 2025 the growth of prices for secondary housing is not expected. The main reason is expensive loans. Studies show that customers are psychologically uncomfortable to make a mortgage above 16% per annum. Reduction of the key rate next year is possible, but still not to comfortable values.