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- One step forward, two steps back: Biden will remove Cuba from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism
One step forward, two steps back: Biden will remove Cuba from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism
On Tuesday, January 14, the U.S. White House website released a statement saying that Cuba will be removed from the list of countries sponsors of terrorism, where it has been for about 40 years. Barack Obama already did such a thing in 2015, but in the first term of Donald Trump's administration, the US policy toward this Caribbean country changed again - Trump returned it to the banned list shortly before leaving office in January 2021. President Joe Biden's current decision to exclude the country may be even less durable. Read more about the situation, as well as whether relations between the United States and the Island of Freedom will change during President Trump's second term, in the Izvestia piece.
The decision will accelerate Cuba's transition to democracy
US President Joe Biden announced the decision to remove Cuba for six months from the list of states sponsoring terrorism. This will happen within the framework of the deal on the release of political prisoners on the island (according to the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we are talking about 553 prisoners. Their release will be carried out gradually). U.S. administration officials believe that dozens of them will be released as early as January 20, when President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Presumably, economic pressure on Cuba will also be eased.
"I have concluded that suspending for six months the decision to place Cuba on this list is in the best interests of the United States and will accelerate Cuba's transition to democracy," Biden said in a statement to Congress.
U.S. President Joe Biden
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel also spoke out about the U.S. decision. In his Telegram channel, he wrote words of gratitude, called the decision correct, but belated and limited in scope.
Dmitry Rosenthal, director of the Institute of Latin America (ILA) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that such a late date of Joe Biden's decision to remove Cuba from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism is a political game, an attempt to complicate Trump's political life and to show that the Democrats sought to establish relations with Cuba.
After Cuba is removed from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK), Iran and Syria will remain on it.
Inclusion in the list of countries sponsoring terrorism in accordance with the American legislation means the imposition of an embargo on arms sales and any economic assistance from the United States. There are also sanctions against third countries that maintain business relations with the Latin American country.
Cuba has not been a focus of the Biden administration's attention
American political scientist Malek Dudakov told Izvestia that Joe Biden's administration did not focus on Cuba during his four years in office, even though many hoped for a continuation of Obama's policy of normalizing relations with the island of freedom.
- I think that Biden is really trying to close his gestalts somehow, that's why, at the end of his presidency, he announces the removal of Cuba from the list of sponsors of terrorism," Malek Dudakov explains the reasons for the decision of the current head of the United States.
Victoria Zhuravleva, deputy director of IMEMO RAS, agrees with this opinion. She notes that Joe Biden announced the removal of Cuba from the list in order to leave some foreign policy imprint on himself. She also added that making such decisions at the very end of a president's term is quite typical, especially for presidents from different parties. Such steps, she said, are very symbolic - to do something at the last moment despite the fact that no steps had been taken on the issue for four years prior to that.
- This is a very symbolic gesture that carries nothing else, because it is clear that Trump will come and most likely cancel it," explains Viktoria Zhuravleva.
Dmitry Rosenthal added that Biden's decision may turn out to be a trump card for Trump, which he is able to use in case of domestic problems.
- Trump can always return Cuba to the list of countries sponsoring terrorism, thereby gaining some support from that part of the electorate that traditionally favors pressure on left-radical regimes, particularly Cuba," said the director of the ILA RAS.
In this matter, it is also important to add that, according to the expert, Trump will wait and return Cuba to the list of countries sponsoring terrorism when it is favorable to him, not in the first days of the presidency.
"Trump's Hard Hawks
With less than a week to go before the start of Donald Trump's presidency, the question of how he will act remains open. Malek Dudakov doesn't deny that the Republican could quickly reverse Biden's decision on Cuba, even on his first day as head of state.
- I think Biden's apparatchiks have some hope that this way they will actualize the topic of Cuba and motivate Trump not to return to a policy of hard pressure, but first try to negotiate with Havana," the American political scientist believes.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
He also draws attention to the presence in the president-elect's team of rather "hard hawks" with regard to Cuba. One of them is future U.S. Secretary of State and ethnic Cuban Marco Rubio, who has a very negative attitude toward the current government in Havana.
In this regard, Malek Dudakov considers it most likely that Cuba will return to the list of countries sponsors of terrorism when Trump comes to power. Nevertheless, he does not reject the possibility of dialog between the states.
Viktoria Zhuravleva notes that Donald Trump will not have time for Cuba at first because of his big foreign and domestic policy plans, which he needs to fulfill in a year and a half (until the next elections to the U.S. House of Representatives).
What will be Trump's Cuba policy during the new term?
According to Malek Dudakov, Trump's policy toward Latin American countries, including Cuba, will be based on pressure on the leftists in power to change the regime to one that is willing to cooperate with the United States. He also doubts the possibility of maintaining negotiations with Havana under Trump.
Viktoria Zhuravleva believes that Trump will show almost no interest in Cuba and the whole policy will be limited to returning the country to the list of countries sponsors of terrorism. Relations will not develop either in a good or bad way. The problem, according to the expert, is that the U.S. has failed to "re-educate" Cuba and change the regime inside it, which is an "image" challenge for the North American country.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
