Second time first: Zoran Milanovic remains president of Croatia
The victory of incumbent Croatian President Zoran Milanovic is unlikely to seriously change the course of Zagreb's support for Kiev, experts told Izvestia. At the same time, Milanovic is a figure capable of acting individually and making strong-willed decisions. The current head of state wins the second round of presidential elections held on January 12. According to preliminary data, he received more than 74% of the vote, confidently ahead of his opponent Dragan Primorac, who has the support of the Croatian government. Why Croats favored the supporter of a peaceful settlement of the conflict - in the material of "Izvestia".
Results of the second round of presidential elections in Croatia
In Croatia on January 12, the second round of the presidential election, which is expected to win the incumbent head of state socialist Zoran Milanovic. According to preliminary data of the State Election Commission, he receives more than 74% of votes, significantly ahead of his rival - Dragan Primorac, for whom approximately 25% voted.
Formally, both candidates are non-partisan, but Milanovic actually represents the largest opposition force in the country, the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP). According to the constitution, he left its ranks in 2020 after taking office as head of state. For his part, former Minister of Science, Education and Sports Primorac received the full support of the ruling Croatian Democratic Commonwealth (HDZ) party and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic.
Croatia's incumbent president and presidential candidate Zoran Milanovic during voting in the second round of the presidential election
Milanović had every chance of becoming the winner after the first round of elections if he had gotten more than 50% of the votes at that time. However, on December 29, he unexpectedly fell short by less than 1%. Therefore, a second round was announced. Dragan Primorac was supported by a little more than 19% of voters, while the other candidates did not get even 10% of votes.
It should be noted that the elections were held with a record low turnout for the last 15 years - 45.9%. In the second round, the turnout was even lower - about 36% of voters. Of course, the fact that the first round was held during the New Year holidays had an impact on Croatians' willingness to vote, but the political factor is still the main factor, Alexander Pivovarenko, a researcher at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
At a polling station in Zagreb
- In principle, both candidates bring nothing new to the table. Milanovic is an old-timer on the political scene, perfectly familiar to voters, while Primorac is just a party functionary. There is no problem of choice here. People realize that the elections are mediocre and do not show much enthusiasm. At least, they are not so significant for the country's politics, unlike, for example, parliamentary elections in Austria and Germany," he said.
If the first round showed that Primorac, despite the support of the ruling party, could not convince the wavering voters and only the nuclear electorate voted for him, the expert believes that the task of the second round was no longer to win the election, but to get a decent percentage so that there would be no crisis within the ruling party, since a low result is unacceptable for a political force that claims to be a state-forming one.
Dragan Primorac, former Minister of Science, Education and Sports and Croatian presidential candidate, after voting in the second round of the presidential election
- The Croatian president is a secondary figure and has no opportunity to influence foreign policy, because the parliament belongs to another force. There may be some individual rhetoric, but it is extremely difficult to change Croatia's foreign policy systematically. Such attempts could be fraught with a domestic political crisis, and nobody wants that, so the main thing in these elections is not foreign policy, but political status and the struggle for power and prestige inside the country, and this does not require provocative actions," he added.
Why there is support for Milanovic in Croatia
Indeed, Croatia's president, elected for a five-year term, has mainly representative functions, while the government determines the country's domestic and foreign policy. At the same time, the president is subordinate to the country's armed forces.
At the same time, Zoran Milanovic and the head of the government Andrej Plenkovic remain irreconcilable political opponents, especially on the issue of aid to Ukraine. It is indicative that Plenkovic's government did not invite Milanovic to the summit of the countries of South-Eastern Europe and Ukraine on October 9 in Dubrovnik with the participation of Vladimir Zelensky and leaders of 12 countries of the region, not counting the self-proclaimed republic of Kosovo. Moreover, Plenkovic openly called Milanovic "Putin's poodle" after the president earlier refused to approve the participation of Croatian officers in NATO's Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) initiative.
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic at a polling station
Although Milanovic has criticized Russia's actions in Ukraine, he still opposes Zagreb's involvement in the conflict, as well as sending Croatian troops to Ukraine as part of NATO missions. "Any NATO intervention in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, i.e. sending and deploying soldiers to train Ukrainians, is military activity. That is my position. I am unequivocally against it," he said on the eve of the Dubrovnik summit. Milanovic also said in January 2023 that Russia had been provoked into a conflict since 2014. At that time, he also said that Crimea would never be part of Ukraine again and that anti-Russian sanctions were hurting the EU and only bringing Russia and China closer together.
The secret of the president's popularity lies in the fact that his statements are supported by a part of the Croatian population that is skeptical of the EU, NATO and military aid to Ukraine, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council Milan Lazovic explained to Izvestia.
Croatia's incumbent president and presidential candidate Zoran Milanovic after announcing the first unofficial results of the second round of the presidential election
- He is trying to convey some things in simple language, he is not called "the Croatian Trump" for nothing. This position is close to a large part of the population. This is a kind of populist technique that works," explained the analyst.
By the way, according to the latest data of the EU statistical service, published in November, 32% of Croats are against military support to Ukraine, 29% are against financial assistance and 34% do not want to see Kiev as a member of the EU.
At the same time, given that Donald Trump will come to power in the United States on January 20, Milanovic will look more organic against his background than the partocrat Primorac, says Alexander Pivovarenko.
- Milanovic is a leader who can be put on the same level as Trump. He is a figure capable of acting individually and making strong-willed decisions. But even so, we should not expect any changes in foreign policy, because he represents a systemic political force. The SDP, like the CDU, is based on the principles of Euro-Atlantic integration. This is the dogma of their foreign policy. That is, we are talking about two variants of Euro-Atlantic policy. If the CDU stands on the principles of bloc loyalty, the SDP is oriented more on national interests," he emphasized.
Will Kiev remain without military assistance from Zagreb?
It should be reminded that so far official Zagreb remains Kiev's main assistant in the Western Balkans. At the same summit in Dubrovnik, Zelensky and Plenkovic signed a 10-year cooperation agreement on further military, economic and political assistance to Kiev in addition to the previously allocated 11 packages and €300 million. The media have repeatedly reported about Kiev receiving heavy and small arms from Zagreb. Milanovic, however, opposes sending any lethal weapons to Kiev - this, he said, only prolongs the conflict.
Meanwhile, even Trump's rise to power in the United States does not guarantee that Croatia will abandon its policy of military aid to Kiev. On the contrary, it may even intensify, believes Milan Lazovic.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (powers expired May 20, 2024) and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic at a summit in Dubrovnik, Croatia. September 10, 2024
- Even if a decision is made to reduce U.S. military aid, the burden will most likely be shifted to the Europeans. And this is where Plenkovic may pick up the idea," he says.
The expert warns against inflated expectations regarding Trump's position on Ukraine and suggests looking into the future with "cautious optimism".
- If Trump is going to change anything, it will be far from immediate. Moreover, he will not immediately have the opportunity to do so. Undoubtedly, the Biden administration will leave a number of restrictions that will be difficult for Trump to circumvent," the political analyst concluded.
Tellingly, on January 12, Donald Trump's national security adviser Mike Walz urged Kiev to lower the age of mobilization and solve "manpower problems" because "stabilizing" the contact line would allow entering into "some form of agreement." At the same time, he emphasized that Trump understands the unrealistic idea of completely ousting Russia from all former territories of Ukraine. His team expects that a phone conversation between Trump and Vladimir Putin could take place "in the coming days or weeks".
In turn, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier that the Kremlin "welcomes" Trump's willingness to "solve problems through dialog." "There are still no specifics, we proceed from mutual readiness for the meeting; in all likelihood, after Mr. Trump enters the Oval Office, there will already be some movements," he said.
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