Armenia's prospects of joining the EU are extremely weak. And here's why

The Armenian Cabinet of Ministers has approved the draft law on the beginning of the process of the state's accession to the European Union. Now it will be considered by the parliament. However, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that the final decision can be made only through a national referendum. How real Yerevan's plans are and how they may affect relations with Russia - in the material of "Izvestia".

How the decision was made

- Signatures were collected in September-October 2024 in order to submit the draft law "On the Beginning of the Accession Process of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union" to the parliament for discussion. On October 25, an initiative group of pro-Western politicians and public figures announced that it had collected 60,000 signatures (instead of the 50,000 required by law).

- Presenting the draft law, Ararat Mirzoyan said that "in recent years Armenia and the EU have developed quite intensive and dynamic relations". As an example he mentioned "political support" from the EU. He recalled that the association had deployed a mission of civilian observers in the country, as well as declared its readiness to support the strengthening of Yerevan's economic stability.

- On January 9, the Armenian government gave a positive opinion on the draft law submitted by the civic initiative. Now it will be considered by the parliament.

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- Pashinyan specified that the decision on the country's accession to the association can be made only through a national referendum. He added that after the adoption of the draft law, Yerevan together with the European Union will have to develop a corresponding road map.

- At the same time, Pashinyan clarified that the draft law should not be perceived as an application for immediate accession to the EU. Its main goal is to indicate Armenia's readiness for practical work on rapprochement with the European Union.

- Pashinyan also noted that the interaction with the EU "already brings concrete results." In this context, he particularly recalled the start of negotiations on the liberalization of the visa regime, as well as Armenia's accession to the European Instrument for Peace program. Although the amount of financial and technical assistance under this program is still small, its "political significance," according to Pashinyan, is "extremely high."

Is EU accession possible

- Armenia's chance of joining the EU in the short term is nil. Yerevan is geographically distant from the union, and the EU has so far postponed accepting even the Balkan countries that directly border it. Besides, the republic is not ready to bear the obligations of EU membership.

- The EU is interested in the transit of Iranian gas through the republic. However, this reason is not enough to admit the country to the association. Therefore, accession to the EU may drag on for decades.

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- Some applicant countries are not ready to make all the concessions to the EU for membership in the union. In particular, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin stressed that the country will not recognize Kosovo in exchange for continuing its path to the European Union.

- Despite the formal negotiations on membership with nine countries at the same time, Brussels is not going to take them all into its membership. As the head of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola recognized earlier, the economic model of the EU will not even withstand an increase in the number of member states from 27 to 33. Certain terms for enlargement are not laid down either. In particular, the EU refused to promise the admission of new members by 2030.

- In addition, EU countries are currently experiencing significant financial difficulties caused both by the consequences of anti-Russian sanctions and Ukraine's decision to stop transit of Russian gas through its territory (we have discussed in detail which countries will be most affected by this here). Therefore, it is unlikely that the bloc will consider the possibility of joining a new economically weak player in the next decade.

What Armenia may be offered

- Armenia may be offered to become a "mandate territory". This is a format in which the European Union partially carries out external management of a country.

- If the visa regime is canceled for Armenia, it will be done in the same way as for Georgia, i.e. the country's citizens will be able to go to the EU to have fun, but they may not be able to work there.

Russia's position

- Moscow notes that the EU independently initiates the processes of membership in the association, so it is necessary to wait for Brussels' reaction to Armenia's initiative to join the EU.

- Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which is beneficial for Yerevan - both for the state and the people, Russia reminds. In particular, the country's economic growth rate increases. However, membership in the EU and the EAEU cannot be combined. Both associations assume the absence of customs borders and freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labor. Therefore, the draft law under consideration in Armenia puts the country before a choice.

- If Yerevan's relations with the EAEU are curtailed, energy and food prices will rise in Armenia, and exports of Armenian goods will decrease by 80%. Thus, ordinary people will lose their incomes and jobs and will pay more for basic necessities. In return, they are likely to get visa-free travel with European countries, while Armenia will get depopulation.

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- At the same time, given the current financial problems of the European Union, Russia compares joining the bloc to buying a ticket to the Titanic.

- The Kremlin calls Armenia's Euro-association project its sovereign right, but reminds that some countries, such as Turkey, have maintained their orientation toward EU membership for many years, but "have not met with much reciprocity from Brussels."

- Russia noted that Western countries want to turn Armenia against the CSTO and EAEU, but they have nothing to offer it except "ephemeral membership" in the EU. The topic of EU membership can be discussed for years and get zero result.

- The expert community believes that Pashinyan is trying, on the one hand, to blackmail Moscow by extracting preferences. On the other hand, he is signaling to the West that he is ready to break relations with Russia at any moment. Such a crude policy only irritates Russia and its partners.

In preparing the material Izvestia spoke with:

• Vadim Trukhachev, a political scientist and associate professor at the Russian State University of the Russian Federation;

• Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on the Middle East and the Caucasus.