Political analyst calls low probability of lifting sanctions against Russia under Trump

It is unlikely that US President-elect Donald Trump will lift anti-Russian sanctions immediately after his inauguration, as it is profitable for him to maintain economic leverage against Moscow. This was stated by American political scientist Malek Dudakov in a conversation with Izvestia on January 11.

On the eve, the Financial Times newspaper quoted sources as saying that European Union (EU) officials are worried that Trump may lift anti-Russian sanctions imposed by incumbent US President Joe Biden after taking office.

"In my opinion, still the probability of lifting anti-Russian sanctions immediately after Trump's inauguration is quite low. Because Trump perfectly understands that the topic of sanctions, as well as the topic of Russia's frozen assets in the West, is a lever of pressure on our country in the framework of future negotiations, so it is illogical to lift sanctions," Dudakov commented.

He noted that Russia retains its advantage on the battlefield with Ukraine, so the West has no military leverage to put pressure on Russia. Against this background, the interlocutor of the publication added, the issue of sanctions and frozen Russian assets will be raised at the negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.

"If the negotiations lead to something, to some de-escalation, for example, to the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, then I quite admit that many sanctions adopted during the four years of Biden's presidency will be canceled. <...> If the negotiations end in failure, then the sanctions will not be lifted," the expert said.

Dudakov also pointed out that most of Russia's frozen assets are located in Europe, and Trump, if he wants to lift the sanctions, will have to negotiate with European officials, who are not always ready to cooperate with the American leader. In addition, the political analyst said, the Republican supports euroskeptics in various countries, such as Hungarian and Italian Prime Ministers Viktor Orban and Giorgi Meloni and the far-right Alternative for Germany party.

"There is a high probability of a wedge, a conflict between the US and the EU, and against this background there could indeed be small differences between them on the issue of Ukraine. For example, if Trump will agree with us on something, separatel, remove sanctions, give up support for Ukraine, then the Europeans may well keep these or those sanctions," - summarized the Americanist.

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Earlier on Friday, political scientist Pavel Feldman also told Izvestia that Trump's presidency could cause a split between the US and European countries. The states and the EU will cease to exist as a single pole of world politics, and serious ideological and economic contradictions will arise between them, the interlocutor admits.

The New York Times reported back on December 11 that Trump may unblock Moscow's frozen assets and lift anti-Russian sanctions, which includes changing the terms of the loan to Kiev, allocated by Washington under Biden.

The special operation to protect Donbass, which Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on February 24, 2022, continues. The decision was taken against the backdrop of the aggravated situation in the region.