Trudeau's resignation and an early change of power in Canada. Details
On January 6, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation and stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party once a successor is found. Since in Canada the office of Prime Minister is held by the head of the winning party, the Liberals needed time to determine who would lead the party into the next election. How Trudeau won them this time and who could be his successor - in the material "Izvestia".
What led to Trudeau's resignation
- Despite the fact that Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister of Canada for three consecutive terms, in recent years his popularity has fallen noticeably, and with it the popularity of the ruling Liberal Party, which he heads. For the past two terms, the Liberals have failed to secure a majority in the House of Commons, and Trudeau has had to build a coalition with opposition parties - a so-called "minority parliament."
- A blow to the prime minister's reputation was the honoring of Nazi criminal Jaroslav Gunko in the House of Commons on September 22, 2023. The elderly SS man was invited to the session, where he received a standing ovation from the Canadian Parliament, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The scandal sparked outrage not only in Canada but also abroad.
- In December 2024, another scandal occurred in the Canadian government - Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister and longtime Trudeau associate Chrystia Freeland posted a tweet with a photo of her resignation letter on the day of her dismissal, where she accused the prime minister of using "costly political gimmicks" instead of focusing on cutting the federal budget and countering the threat of U.S. duties. Earlier, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he would raise import duties on Canadian goods by 25 percent.
- Foreign press reports that the real reason for the rift between Trudeau and Freeland was a phone call, during which the Prime Minister informed the associate of his decision to replace her as Finance Minister with former head of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney. The official could have remained in the cabinet, but not as head of department, which would have amounted to a demotion, and so she resigned.
- Following Freeland's departure, New Democratic Party (NDP) leader and Trudeau's main coalition ally, Jagmeet Singh, published a letter saying the party would seek to bring down the government once Parliament returned from recess. The vote of no confidence was due to be announced on the floor of the House of Commons on Jan. 27.
- Justin Trudeau's government had previously managed to avoid a vote of no confidence three times, but the Liberals' approval rating fell to a historic low of 16% at the end of 2024. By the time his resignation was announced, Trudeau faced not only strong opposition from the opposition, but also the discontent of his fellow party members - his associates called on him to step down as leader of the Liberal Party.
Transition period
- Despite submitting his resignation, Justin Trudeau has not stepped down immediately and has not appointed a replacement. He will remain as Prime Minister and retain the leadership of the Liberal Party until a successor is found for him as party leader.
- The Liberal Party constitution provides at least 90 days for a national selection of a new leader. To provide the party with this time, Trudeau insisted on prorogation (a break between parliamentary sessions. - Ed.), which will last until March 24, but can be extended by decision of the Governor General of Canada.
Prorogation is introduced and prolonged by the Governor General of Canada - the official representative of the British Crown in Canada appointed by the King of Great Britain and the Commonwealth of Nations - on the recommendation of the Prime Minister. During a recess, the government continues to function, but the legislature ceases to function completely: it cannot conduct inquiries, studies, or hold committee meetings.
- All legislative initiatives that do not receive British Crown approval before prorogation begins are "sent to the trash garbage can" and must be reintroduced in the new session. The bills now under attack are the Internet Harm Bill , the Indigenous Community Drinking Water Bill , the Capital Gains Tax increase for individuals and corporations, and the Citizenship for Children of Canadians Born Outside the Country Bill . The last bill, designed to replace an unconstitutional 2009 law, will be all but killed because the court-ordered deadline for the government will be missed without further extension.
- One of the risks of prorogation is the inability to respond quickly to Donald Trump, who will take office as early as January 20. The U.S. president-elect has repeatedly threatened to raise import duties on Canadian goods and make Canada another U.S. state. Because of the parliamentary recess, the country will not have the opportunity to promptly change legislation or make changes to the budget for several months.
- At the same time, there are no serious risks for the Canadian government before March 24, as this is not the first time such a situation has occurred. Trump may use the occasion to increase the country's loyalty to trade cooperation with the United States, but attempts to annex Canada, as he often talks about, seem unlikely.
- The last time Canada resorted to proroguing parliament was in 2008, when the Liberals and NDP threatened the Conservative minority government with a vote of no confidence. At that time, Prime Minister Stephen Harper advised the Governor General to recess Parliament for seven weeks in the hope that the coalition would break up and Parliament could be saved. In 2009 there was again an attempt to introduce prorogation, this time the government wanted to avoid a nasty investigation.
Possible successors to Trudeau
- Among the likely candidates for the Liberal Party leadership, experts name Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. Trudeau has cleaned up the political field and there are no obvious possible successors around him, and therefore it is difficult to make predictions.
- Mark Carney, the former head of the Central Bank of Canada and the Liberal Party's economic adviser, although he was the formal cause of the rift between Trudeau and Freeland, refused to join the cabinet. Nevertheless, he is considered the most likely candidate to head the party. Carney himself does not rule out his participation in the election race. His strength may be economic and climate policy, i.e. areas in which the Liberals have been defeated.
- Former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is described by supporters as the most recognizable member of Trudeau's cabinet and therefore the most viable replacement. She also had experience with the first Trump administration. Freeland, a Canadian of Ukrainian descent , was the main lobbyist for Kiev's interests in the government and led a coordinated effort by Western allies to impose sanctions against Russia.
- Other candidates include Transportation Minister Anita Anand, British Columbia provincial premier Christy Clark, Innovation, Science and Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne and Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly.
- According to foreign analysts, regardless of who leads the party, the Liberals can hardly expect to win the election - they will have to fight for second or third place. According to polls, Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, who holds right-wing views, is now the most popular with voters. In particular, he said that the number of newcomers will be determined by the number of houses built, because now, amid inflation and a huge influx of immigrants, housing has become unaffordable for many Canadians.
Impact on relations with Russia
- According to political analysts, Canada is now hostile to Russia and is actively arming Kiev. Ukrainians are the fifth largest national community in Canada and are quite consolidated.
- We should not expect a warming of relations between Russia and Canada, as there are currently no leaders on Canada's political horizon who are interested in building diplomatic relations with Russia. Despite the fact that Kiev lost its main lobbyist in Canada with the departure of the pro-Ukrainian Freeland, it still has allies in the Canadian government.
While preparing the material, Izvestia spoke with:
- political scientist and publicist Yuri Svetov;
- Igor Semenovsky, political scientist and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
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