Analyst talks about bitcoin's downside risks in January

The negative impact on the dynamics of cryptocurrencies was caused by reports about the mass withdrawal of Ethereum from staking - more than 500 thousand ETH over the past month. BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov told Izvestia on January 9 about the reasons for the sharp decline in the currency.

According to the specialist, the decline in the bitcoin rate in early January 2025 is due to favorable employment figures in the United States, which increased forecasts of a more stringent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. In addition, the statements of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell about the probable decrease in the number of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2025 had a negative impact on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The situation was further complicated by the firing of CFTC Chairman Rostin Benham, who had advocated for stricter regulation of cryptocurrencies, and the resignation of Fed Vice President Michael Barr.

"The negative impact on the cryptocurrency dynamics was caused by reports of massive Ethereum withdrawals from staking - more than 500k ETH in the last month. WisdomTree deposited over 11k ETH on Coinbase minutes before the price collapse, which may have also affected sentiment. These factors caused the liquidation of marginal long positions for about $1 billion. Bitcoin's fall creates a domino effect, affecting the entire cryptocurrency market," Antonov said.

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According to him, in January, in the conditions of corrective movement and uncertainty about interest rates of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, there is a probability of BTC/USDT pair quotations falling below the level of $90.5 thousand with the aim of reaching about $88 thousand. Due to the low liquidity of the cryptocurrency market and investors' caution, it is possible to fall to $85 thousand.

The current bitcoin rate is $95 thousand. If the price can stay above $93 thousand and does not fall below $90 thousand before January 25, it could signal a new growth. Now the key resistance level is the $97,500 mark.

"MicroStrategy and BlackRock continue to buy bitcoin on the fall, reducing its supply on the market. They own more than 1 million BTC worth almost $100 billion. After halving 2024, I keep the key target for 2025 at $160,000 by October-November," Antonov summarized.

Earlier, on January 2, Capital Lab partner Evgeny Shatov told Izvestia about the bitcoin rate for the first half of 2025. According to him, there will be a fall in the index against the background of an increase in the number of altcoins and the growth of their total capitalization.