Cable personalities: who could have damaged Estlink 2
The Estlink 2 submarine energy cable linking Finland and Estonia has unexpectedly failed. In an attempt to find the culprits, Finnish security forces detained the Cook Islands-registered tanker Eagle S, which carries Russian oil, and accused its crew of intentionally damaging the cable. Following this, NATO said that they intend to use this incident as a reason to fight the Russian "shadow fleet" of tankers, and the Estonian Prime Minister called for increased involvement of the North Atlantic Alliance in the protection of critical infrastructure in the Baltic. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
The second emergency in a year
Estlink 2 power cable failed on December 25 at 12:26 p.m. - at that moment the power transfer from Finland to Estonia amounted to 658 MW. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo immediately responded to the incident in the sense that the emergency will not affect the power supply situation in the country. As for the second cable performing the same function, Estlink 1, Orpo said that it is operating normally. Environment Minister Kai Mykkänen confirmed that the cable failure does not threaten Finland's energy system.
Estlink 2 transformer station operating between Finland and Estonia
In the near future, the price of electricity in Finland promises to decrease due to very windy and mild weather. In addition, electricity demand in Finnish industry is currently lower than usual due to the Christmas vacation season. However, in any case, the importance of the Estlink 2 cable should not be downplayed. It has a capacity of 658 megawatts (Estlink 1 has a smaller capacity of 350 MW). At the same time, for example, the capacity of the third reactor of the Finnish nuclear power plant Olkiluoto is 1600 MW. The total length of Estlink 2 is about 170 kilometers, of which about 145 kilometers run along the seabed. After its damage, the price of electricity in the Baltics quadrupled on December 27.
It should be noted that Estlink 2 has been idle for most of this year. This cable was already damaged on January 26. The Finnish press first reported "Russian sabotage," but it quickly became clear that Estlink 2 had failed due to a technical fault on the Estonian coast. The cable was put back into operation only in September, the repairs cost €30 million, and after that it worked for less than four months. This time, Estonian and Finnish system operators Elering and Fingrid estimate that repair work on Estlink 2 could take until August 2025.
Eagle S oil tanker
Momentarily, the news was publicized that, according to the MarineTraffic service, the Hong Kong-flagged container ship Xin Xin Tian 2 was moving near Estlink 2 at the time of its damage. However, a little later the media announced that the Cook Islands-flagged tanker Eagle S was in the area at the time of the cable damage. It is claimed that at the moment the interference with Estlink 2 was detected, this vessel slowed down noticeably. A Finnish Border Guard patrol vessel, Turva, rushed to the tanker and boarded it. The crew of the Eagle S offered no resistance.
Turva escorted the tanker to the coast of the Porkkala peninsula. At the time of the arrest, the Eagle S was en route from St. Petersburg to Egypt. According to Lloyd's List, the Eagle S, which is the only Caravella vessel from the United Arab Emirates, is carrying Russian oil. It is referred to the so-called shadow fleet. As is well known, the acquisition of older tankers, most of which are now registered in the UAE, China with Hong Kong and Greece, has helped Russia bypass the G7 oil price ceiling and realign its oil supplies to China and India.
A chain of strange incidents
As is well known, the Estlink 2 incident is not the first recent case of damage to underwater communications in the Baltic. Last fall, the Balticconnector, an underwater gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia, was damaged. And then all kinds of experts shouted that it was "an action of Russian saboteurs as part of an undeclared war launched against the infrastructure of the Western bloc". But then it turned out that the pipeline was inadvertently damaged by the Chinese container ship NewNew Polar Bear, which anchored near it. China, in general, did not argue with this, admitting guilt - and the incident seemed to be settled.
Chinese dry cargo ship Yi Peng 3
However, on November 18, 2024, the Finnish state-owned telecommunications company Cinia reported the breakage of the C-Lion1 submarine communication cable connecting the country with Germany. And just a few hours after the emergency on the Finnish cable, it became known about a similar incident on the Internet cable connecting Lithuania and Sweden. The media put the blame for the incident on the crew of the Chinese dry cargo ship Yi Peng 3, which "with its strange routes" attracted the attention of Danish naval sailors - and therefore two vessels of the Danish Navy followed it and stopped it.
The captain of the vessel turned out to be a Russian citizen. Thus, the two main enemies of the "free world", Russia and China, were "in one flask" at once. It is characteristic, however, that even the Finnish security police urged not to believe in the rumors of "sabotage" - recalling that every year there are at least 200 submarine cable failures in the world. Such incidents are usually caused by unintentional human actions.
On the whole, the incident looked very suspicious from the very beginning. The fact is that at one time C-Lion1 was laid along the Nord Stream pipeline, only a few hundred meters away from it, to facilitate installation work. At that time, officials of the Baltic NATO countries were peddling the "version" that "Russia blew up its own gas pipeline". And what is most interesting is that right after both "streams" were taken out of service (i.e. two years ago!) Finnish security officials and cybersecurity experts called the cable "the next possible target for sabotage, including by Russia." There is an impression that this was a "bookmark" for the future, which was activated at the right moment.
Location of the leak on the Nord Stream pipeline
And now there is the Estlink 2 incident. Finland's Chief Commissioner Juha Hietala revealed that the captain of the Eagle S tanker is accused of "aggravated vandalism". Finnish border guards held a press conference. According to them, when the Eagle S's anchor chain was lifted, no actual anchor was found on it. Eduskunta MP Jarmo Lindberg, formerly the commander of the Finnish Armed Forces, recalled that there had been three cable damage incidents during the year, all of which were linked to a vessel of some kind. "It seems suspicious that it is possible to drag huge anchors across an uneven seabed without a vessel noticing it," Lindberg said.
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said the country will "act decisively" to fight and put an end to the problem.
Orpo informed that Finland has not entered into contacts with Russia in connection with the new incident - according to him, he said, he does not yet "want to conclude that Moscow is behind these actions." For his part, Jukka Savolainen, head of the Finnish Hybrid Competence Center, said, "Someone is now testing how cheap ships can cause serious interference throughout the Western world. We have to intervene."
Continuation will follow
Finnish President Alexander Stubb wrote on social media, "We must be able to prevent the risks posed by ships in the Russian shadow fleet." Then the Estonian leadership made a series of sharp statements. Prime Minister Kristen Michal said that the Estonian Navy, together with NATO allies, "will start to monitor and protect underwater critical infrastructure more actively." He emphasized that Estonia's electricity supply was not in danger, as backup power plants could be activated. According to the prime minister, "the detained vessel is important for the Russian shadow fleet, and Estonia's persistent calls to stop the work of this fleet obviously do not please Moscow".
Mihal said that at a December 16-17 meeting in Tallinn of representatives of the countries that make up NATO's Joint Expeditionary Force (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom) decided to check the Russian "shadow fleet" more actively and prevent it from operating. "Only a week has passed since that Tallinn summit - and already a ship of the "shadow fleet" is accused of sabotage off the Estonian coast. A coincidence? Hardly," political scientist Maxim Reva told Izvestia.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal speaks at a press conference of the Joint Expeditionary Force Summit, Tallinn, Estonia, Dec. 17, 2024
Kristen Michal discussed the situation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte - the latter promised that the alliance would "strengthen its military presence in the Baltic Sea." Former Estonian Prime Minister, now European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen condemned "the destruction of critical infrastructure in Europe" and promised "new sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet" in a joint statement. Kallas added: "Sabotage in Europe is becoming more and more frequent. We have seen a variety of attacks: arson, cyber attacks and election interference. The timing and precision of the current defacement of EstLink 2 and telecommunications cables rather indicate that this was a coordinated effort." In her view, these are "not just isolated incidents, but a targeted attempt to hit our digital and energy infrastructure."
On December 27, Estonia sent a small patrol vessel, Raju, "to protect" the energy cable (the Estonian Navy does not possess large combat vessels). "Our task is to immediately make it clear that we are ready to defend the connections between Estonia and Finland, including the use of military means," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said. "We are ready to prevent attacks on our energy infrastructure at sea using non-military means. We are in contact with our Finnish colleagues as well as with the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO's Combined Forces Europe to discuss the involvement of allies in the protection of our critical infrastructure," Estonian Defense Forces Commander Andrus Merilo added.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
Political analyst Maxim Reva told Izvestia that the EstLink 2 incident looks extremely strange. "My congratulations to the captain of the Eagle S. What kind of sniper's accuracy it takes to hit the cable with an anchor so aptly to destroy it! In all seriousness, the version that the tanker deliberately plowed the bottom with the anchor in order to guarantee the destruction of the cable also does not stand up to criticism: anchors are designed to keep the ship in place. Again, the cable is not just lying on the bottom, it has powerful protection - which, as far as I know, was strengthened after the January breakdown. To disable it, a special operation with the participation of qualified specialists in underwater work is needed," Reva says.
In his opinion, this is a provocation with a dual purpose. First, it is an excuse to strengthen the fight against the Russian "shadow fleet". Secondly, it is part of an escalation strategy designed to block possible peacekeeping initiatives of the new US President Donald Trump. Natalia Yeremina, a doctor of political sciences and professor at St. Petersburg State University, holds a similar opinion. "We are talking about a conscious escalation of tension in the Baltic Sea region. This incident will be used to justify further militarization of the region, intensification of NATO exercises there, to fight against cargo shipping to and from Russia. Finns and Estonians have already repeatedly declared their readiness to block Russia's "neck" of the Gulf of Finland. Officially, however, they will not impose a blockade - it would be tantamount to a declaration of war. It will be a matter of many point attempts to arrest ships with Russian cargoes, as it happened in the case of the Eagle S tanker," Eremina believes. In her opinion, Russia should raise this issue at the international level as soon as possible to draw the world's attention to NATO's dangerous provocations in the Baltic.
