A political analyst pointed to the likelihood of the situation in Syria moving into a hot phase

The situation in Syria remains fragile and there is a high probability of escalation. This was stated by RIAC RIAC Program Coordinator Ivan Bocharov during a roundtable discussion on "The Middle East: 2024 Outcomes" at Izvestia IEC on December 27.

"The potential for escalation both was and remains quite high. The situation in Syria has become more fragile, there are periodic outbreaks of violence <...>, the activity of pro-Turkish forces against the Syrian Democratic Forces, which consist mainly of Kurdish formations, has increased," he said.

According to the speaker, the Syrian authorities will most likely manage to prevent the transition of the conflict to a hot phase, but the possibility of a negative scenario remains, including in the northeast of the country due to the unresolved Kurdish problem. In addition, there are other conflicts in the region that could also escalate.

Vasily Kuznetsov, deputy director for scientific work at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and RIAC member, also noted that the consequences of the Syrian crisis will be very serious and bear a fundamental nature.

"The period of the Assad dynasty in power that lasted for many decades is over, not only is there a threat to the existence of a united Syria, but the period of the Baath Party's rule is over, which, I think, is also very important," the expert explained.

Accountability for action: trials of military officials close to Assad begin in Syria

How large-scale will be the purge of law enforcement agencies, which the new authorities of the country are carrying out?

The situation in Syria escalated as a result of a major attack by armed formations in Aleppo and Idlib, which began on November 28 and led to retaliatory actions of the Syrian army against the militants.

Then, on December 9, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after talks with the opposition, resigned as head of state and left the country, instructing a peaceful transfer of power.

On the same day, the national coalition of revolutionary and opposition forces in Syria said it was working on the formation of a transitional authority. In turn, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali said that most of the ministers of the Syrian government remain in Damascus, and he himself is ready to cooperate with any elected leadership.

Against this backdrop, the IDF announced the deployment of forces along the Syrian border to ensure the safety of communities in the Golan Heights and Israeli citizens. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the demarcation agreement with Syria has been terminated due to the withdrawal of Syrian troops.