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- Plastic to waste: the Central Bank predicts growth of non-cash payments without cards
Plastic to waste: the Central Bank predicts growth of non-cash payments without cards
The Bank of Russia has published the Basic Guidelines for the Development of the National Payment System for the Period 2025-2027. In particular, the Central Bank of Russia forecasts that by 2028 non-cash payments without the use of bank cards will account for 15-16% of all transactions. Izvestia has analyzed how the electronic payments market will develop further and whether Russia is about to give up cash altogether.
Cashless priority
The Central Bank's Guidelines for the Development of the National Payment System for the Period 2025-2027 provide for the improvement of the payment structure and regulatory requirements, as well as the growth of innovative solutions.
The proper development of the system will be judged by the growth of the share of non-cash payment methods for goods and services without the use of plastic cards. In particular, the application of special banking applications, the growth in the number of payments by means of QR code and SBP, the application of biometrics, settlements in digital rubles, etc.
According to the Bank of Russia, 5-7 years ago plastic cards accounted for up to 95% of all non-cash transactions. New ways of cashless payment are first of all a choice for the consumer.
As noted in the statement of the Central Bank, the previous targets for growth in the share of non-cash payments in 70-80% were reached as early as 2023 (83.4%), and at the end of the III quarter of 2024 amounted to 85.3%. No new targets are specified in the fresh review of directions.
The forecast about the growth of the share of alternative payment methods up to 15-16% seems reasonable to the majority of interviewed experts.
Best practices
Foreign experts also recognize Russia's leading position in the development of retail electronic payments, says Alexander Pushko, a guest lecturer at the School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- Thus, according to MasterCard Advisors research, the similar indicator in the USA amounted to 80%, in Germany - 76%, in South Korea - 70%, - he noted.
The first positions in terms of turnover volume are held by settlements with the use of bank cards.
- This is the most mass type of electronic payments. In the medium term, the share of payments using bank cards will slowly decrease, but the leadership is not likely to be lost," he believes.
In Pushko's opinion, the probability of achieving a share of 15-16% by 2027 for electronic payment services is quite realistic, provided that economic stability is maintained in the country. He emphasizes the safety of such payment methods.
- There is an opinion that with the development of digital payments, the risks of cyberattacks and fraud are multiplied. In my opinion, this is not true at all. Banks have accumulated sufficient experience in successfully countering cyber fraudsters. The problem of the growth of cyber fraud lies on a completely different plane, namely in the excessive gullibility, low financial and digital literacy of our fellow citizens, in the advanced social engineering skills of criminal groups," Pushko says.
Unpopular cash
According to the statistics of the Bank of Russia, the share of cash payments is falling every year. At the end of 9 months of 2024, the lowest figure of 14.7% was recorded (still in 2019 - 35.3%), which may decrease to 13% by the end of the year.
The situation is confirmed by other data. On October 1, 2024, the share of cash in the savings of Russians fell to a historic low for the last 6 years - 15% (or 15.92 trillion rubles), this excluding insurance savings and balances on escrow accounts.
The main reason for the transfer of funds from cash to non-cash is digitalization, believes Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the analytical agency VMT Consult.
- Enterprises are increasingly refusing to issue salaries and bonuses through the cash desk, and the available cash tends to be transferred to cards, for example, to receive money for the current balance. Another argument "for" - the development of bank loyalty programs, the possibility of connecting cashback for certain expenses. It is more profitable to pay for a trip to the dentist with a card and get back part of the money in the form of cashback or bonuses for medical services. Sometimes banks offer increased cashback in tenfold amount for payment with "smile" to popularize the tool. You can't get anything back for cash payments. Russians are getting used to the innovations and thus pump up their financial literacy, - says the analyst.
According to her, the popularity of savings accounts is growing. "This is not a deposit, which is unprofitable to terminate in advance, but also not an ordinary account, on which just lie money," she continues. - This is a tool for accumulating funds without complying with the sometimes strict deposit conditions".
They will not come to naught
Nevertheless, cash will be in demand in Russia for a long time to come, believes Igor Dodonov, analyst at Finam.
- Older people will continue to prefer the traditional method of payment for purchases. In addition, the Central Bank has not even started discussions on the possible abolition of cash," he says.
The analyst also emphasized that in the foreseeable future the Russian economy will continue to have a significant informal sector, where cash payments are always relevant.
- Cash is accepted everywhere, it cannot be blocked or spent more than you have in your wallet. At the same time, there are disadvantages: bills and coins can be destroyed in a natural disaster or fire, they can be stolen. In case of losing a bag with a card, there is a chance to save money by blocking the account," he argues.
Cash remains in demand in small settlements and among the population who prefer traditional forms of payments.
- Cash implies complete anonymity and independence from technical infrastructure. They are less convenient for retail payments because of logistics and storage costs. Nevertheless, cashless payment methods are steadily becoming dominant due to convenience and technological support. But this is a long-lasting trend," comments Kirill Chernovol, a researcher at the Russia-OECD Center of the IPEI of the Presidential Academy.
At the same time, Kirill Chernovol named the growth in the use of the digital ruble as the most expected among other current forecasts.
- The Bank of Russia sees it as a key tool for future payment infrastructure, offering businesses and citizens low fees and high security," he said.
Marketplaces as an engine of progress
The Central Bank's policy with its digital innovations has little effect on ordinary citizens. Another tool becomes mass-market only when its advantages are obvious, says Yulia Makarenko, deputy director of the Banking Institute for Development.
- For most people in Russia, words like "blockchain platforms", "digital rubles" and "payment platforms" are a long way off. But with the spread of marketplaces and their retail outlets literally from the central squares of cities with millions of people to dormitories and remote villages, the need for electronic services has grown. Buyers are mastering the tools of marketplaces: they pay by card, transfer funds via SBP, open e-wallets directly in their accounts, for which they get a discount. More modest online stores try to provide as many payment options as possible, for example, with the help of third-party payment systems. These tools are becoming popular due to their demand primarily in the e-commerce sector, rather than as a result of decisions "at the top"," summarized the financier.
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