The expert predicted the ruble exchange rate for January 2025

In January, the pressure on the ruble from seasonal factors traditional for the end of the year will subside. As a rule, before the new year, the expenditures of consumers, companies and the state increase, so the exchange rate may stabilize around the mark of 100 rubles per dollar in early 2025. Olga Veretennikova, vice president of the analytical company Borsell, told Izvestia on January 1.

"At the moment, consolidation of the national currency should be considered the most probable scenario: the dollar/ruble pair can hold its positions in the range of 100-110 rubles with gravitation to its upper boundary, but on a longer horizon, exceeding one month," she said.

According to the expert, other factors that will restrain the weakening of the national currency include high ruble interest rates, restrictions on currency outflow from Russia, high volumes of settlements in rubles for imports and a positive trade balance, as the first quarter is traditionally strong in terms of trade balance.

"Undoubtedly, there may be some correction of the exchange rate in January, while the trend of its depreciation remains in the long term. At the same time, new Western sanctions targeting Russia's oil exports could potentially have a negative impact on the inflow of export proceeds, especially if global oil prices continue to decline. The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate is largely influenced, on the one hand, by the volume of currency sales by exporters in the domestic market, and, on the other hand, by currency purchases by importers, businesses and households. At the same time, under conditions of low liquidity and high volatility of the domestic currency market, its largest participants are in no hurry to part with foreign currency liquidity, preferring to borrow rubles for necessary settlements even at current rates," concluded Veretennikova.

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What else the authorities can do to stabilize the exchange rate and whether they will maintain it

In early December, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that there is no room for a serious weakening of the ruble. In his opinion, the dollar rate at the end of the next year, 2025 will be approximately 112-115 rubles. At the same time, he admitted that so far some weakening of the national currency is indeed present, but no surprises are expected: the ruble exchange rate will fluctuate depending on the situation.