Why Trump needs control over Greenland. Parsing

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that he wants to establish control over Greenland. Neither the island itself nor Denmark, which owns it, supported this idea. Copenhagen responded by announcing that it would increase defense spending on its overseas territory. Why Trump wants Greenland and why it matters - in Izvestia's breakdown.

How serious are Trump's statements

- Less than a month before his second inauguration, Trump announced that he considers the territory of Greenland important for US national security. He explicitly stated that the US should own the island. The politician did not specify exactly how he wants to gain control of the foreign territory, but in the past he has made an offer to Denmark to buy the island or exchange it for Puerto Rico, having been refused.

- Usually, when Trump makes threatening statements about foreign policy, experts perceive them as an element of blackmail or bargaining in which he wants to get some preferential treatment for the US. For example, Trump's intention to impose high tariffs on imported goods is interpreted as an invitation to make a profitable deal for American companies, after which the issue of duties will be closed. Trump's desire to regain U.S. control of the Panama Canal is also read as a demand to lower tariffs for U.S. ships passing through it, rather than an actual attempt at annexation.

- In the case of Greenland, however, there is no such implication. Trump has not previously made specific claims to Denmark for which he could use the island as a bargaining chip. For the rest of Europe, with which Trump continues to argue, Greenland is not such an integral part that could be a bargaining chip.

- A possible scenario is that Trump thus wants to get Denmark to increase the American military presence in the Arctic. However, Washington and Copenhagen are already military allies who would have no problem agreeing on such a sensitive issue, especially since the US already has one military base in Greenland. In the absence of any other explanation, Trump's demand is already being taken with due seriousness.

What is the significance of Greenland

- Greenland is the world's largest island with an area of 2.16 square kilometers. It is located northeast of North America and is almost entirely above the Arctic Circle. Greenland is 80% covered with ice. It is inhabited by about 56,000 people living mainly in the southwest of the island. The majority of the population is made up of Eskimos who speak Greenlandic.

- Politically, Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark. The metropolis retains control over the island's foreign and financial policy, citizenship and defense. The island has a 31-seat parliament and the government is headed by a prime minister. The majority of the population supports full independence of Greenland, but no real steps have been taken to declare it.

- The U.S. military base Pituffik operates in Greenland. It provides the work of the missile warning system and receiving intelligence data from space. The base has a three-kilometer runway and a deep-water port. It is located in the north of the island away from populated areas. Greenland occupies an important strategic position, as the shortest flight paths of ballistic missiles pass through the Arctic and control over this territory is key to global security.

- Greenland's economy is mainly based on the export of fishing products. The island has deposits of iron, uranium, aluminum, nickel, tungsten, titanium, copper, platinum and rubies. There are also deposits of oil and natural gas, but they are not extracted for environmental reasons. With global climate change, Greenland is becoming increasingly available for development.

Why Trump will need Greenland

- Greenland, if taken over by the US, would become its closest territory to Europe, making it extremely important strategically. For Washington, it would serve as an auxiliary bridgehead in case of an escalation that could occur due to the recent decision to deploy U.S. missiles in Germany. In the arms race initiated by the US, it would need not just an ally in Europe that could suddenly renege on its commitments in the face of danger, but a fully controlled territory with no resistance. Although Greenland is separated from Europe by the Atlantic Ocean, it is still closer than the US mainland.

- The U.S. also fears that Greenland, if it gains the independence it seeks, could be influenced by Russia or China. Beijing has already applied to build an airport on the island and was interested in buying a former military base, but was turned down by Denmark. Moscow has a strong position in the Arctic, which is why Washington considers it natural for Greenland to move closer to Russia in the event of a breakdown in relations with the metropolis.

- Greenland's mineral resources also attract the attention of the U.S. - earlier American companies developed large deposits of oil on the island, but in 2021 Greenland banned the extraction of oil, gas and uranium on its territory. The island is rich in iron ore, and the prospects for the development of the nickel mineral resource base in the Arctic are also associated with it. And even if the natural riches cannot be extracted due to harsh climatic conditions and low profitability, it is important for the Americans to prevent Russian and Chinese companies, which have experience of working in such harsh conditions, from accessing the deposits.

Whether Greenland's transition to the U.S. is possible

- Greenland has rejected the possibility of transitioning to US jurisdiction. Prime Minister Muthe Egende said the island is not for sale and is not giving up its freedom. The Danish government office did not comment on Trump's statement.

- At the same time, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced that the kingdom will allocate additional funds for the defense of Greenland in the amount of at least $1.5 billion. Two new patrol ships and two long-range drones will be purchased with them, two new dog sled teams will be organized, one of Greenland's airports will be reconstructed and the command staff on the island itself will be increased. While it is claimed that the funding allocation was approved long ago, its details were only reported in response to Trump's threat.

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- If Greenland does achieve independence from Denmark, it will find itself without support in the face of American expansion. However, direct annexation of the island to the United States as a state or territory is not the only option for the island to come under Washington's control.

- Greenland can be joined by a treaty of free association, which is already in effect for Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau. Such a treaty assumes that the U.S. provides defense and financial assistance to the territories while maintaining their internal self-government. Unlike the way the relations between Greenland and Denmark are organized now, the island will be able to conduct foreign policy in case of association with the United States.

In preparing the material, Izvestia communicated with and took into account the opinions of:

• political scientist-Americanist Konstantin Blokhin;
• Viktor Mizin, a leading researcher at the Center for International Security of IMEMO RAS.