Due to the high key rate, 47% of real estate objects were at risk
Due to the high key rate, 47% of real estate objects with a planned commissioning date in 2026 are at risk. This was reported by the Ministry of Construction with reference to JSC "Bank DOM.RF".
"One of the key negative factors currently affecting the housing construction industry is the continued growth of the key rate of the Bank of Russia (current rate - 21%. - Ed.). Its new forecast for 2025-2026 is twice as high as the Bank of Russia's February 2024 forecast: the rate is expected to be 17-20% in 2025 and 12-13% in 2026, while in the "Risk Scenario": 22-25% in 2025 and 16-17% in 2026, which excludes lending at affordable rates," the ministry explained.
The ministry notes that according to DOM.RF, with the current monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, the high level of the key rate, the continued growth of construction costs for at least 28% of residential construction projects LLCR (indicator of loan security future expected cash flows of the project) will reach a value of 1.1 and less. Low profitability indicators reduce economic incentives for launching new and implementing already started construction projects in the previously planned volumes and terms, emphasized the Ministry of Construction.
"Currently, 97.5% of construction projects are fully dependent on bank financing. The cost of servicing loans at a rate of 21% compared to the rate of 8.5% in August 2023 has already increased by 355 billion rubles. According to the assessment of DOM.RF, in the risk zone projects with a planned date of commissioning in 2026 and subsequent years (47% of the volume of housing under construction) - the share of sold housing in these projects on 01.10.2024 amounted to 17%", - explained in the ministry.
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Tile for tile: real estate developers want to compensate the costs of loans
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
