Key to Syria: Turkey wants to prevent Turkey from being a beneficiary of Assad's fall
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has paid a visit to Syria, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself plans to travel to Damascus soon. After the change of power in the country, the Turkish embassy reopened in the Syrian capital after 12 years. Ankara seeks to become a major player in Syria and take the place that belonged to Moscow and Tehran. However, the U.S. and Israel are trying to prevent the country from becoming a strategic bridgehead for Turkey. Details - in the material of "Izvestia".
Ankara strengthens its position
"The lifting of sanctions on Syria is extremely important for normalizing the situation in Syria and ensuring security in the country," Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at a press conference after a meeting in Damascus with the leader of the new Syrian authorities - the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, recognized as a terrorist and banned in Russia) Abu Mohammed al-Julani (real name - Ahmed al-Sharaa).
He called on the international community to strongly support the new government, adding that "the Turkish people, the Turkish state and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will always be with Syria."
View of the Turkish Embassy building
Shortly before Hakan Fidan's visit, the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Directorate, Ibrahim Kalın, came to Damascus, and the Turkish embassy in Syria resumed its work after a 12-year break.
The Turkish Foreign Minister did not rule out the possibility of an operation against the "People's Self-Defense Forces" (SDF), which Turkey accuses of links with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, recognized in the republic as a terrorist.
According to him, "whatever is necessary will be done". "There is a new administration in Syria now, I expect it to resolve this issue. This is the preferred way, but if it doesn't happen, of course we will have to protect our own security," Fidan warned.
Turning into a Turkish bridgehead
Turkey's position in Syria has also been strengthened by the fact that Syria's new foreign minister is Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, who lived in Turkey until 2024. And Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, speaking at a session of the country's parliament, called Syria's citizens his own. "We believe that thanks to the upcoming events, our Syrian citizens will be able to return to their land safely and with dignity," he said.
Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also made a statement. He also promised to visit Damascus soon, hinting that the republic is ready to assume the role of Syria's guardian.
Returning to Turkey after a visit to Egypt, the Turkish leader spoke as if he were the head of a neighboring state, talking about the need to lift sanctions on Syria as soon as possible and bring it back into the global community, lamenting the war-torn economy and outlining an agenda for Syria's future transformation, including building a political system and drafting an inclusive constitution.
However, Erdogan considers the neutralization of terrorist organizations operating in Syria and posing a threat on Turkey's southern borders to be paramount. But this is opposed by the US, which does not want to allow Syria to turn into a Turkish bridgehead.
On the eve of the American senators initiated a bill to impose anti-Turkish sanctions for the forceful operation against the Kurdish armed groups, which are assisted by Washington. The document emphasizes that Ankara is obliged to coordinate its steps with the United States.
Meanwhile, The Washington Post reports that a civil war may break out between pro-Turkish formations and Kurdish forces in Syria, while a number of other American publications report that Ankara is building up its forces along the Syrian border.
Against this backdrop, Washington's closest ally, Tel Aviv, is also realizing its ambitions in Syria. Israel supports the SNA and conducts its operation in the border areas of the neighboring country.
There is bargaining going on
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Telegram channel, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the Turks and Israelis are winning in tactical terms.
- The Turks were able to plant structures loyal to themselves in Damascus. Qatar will surely benefit from this as well; there are already talks about resuming the project of laying a gas pipeline from Qatar through the Syrian territory and further to Turkey and, accordingly, to Europe," the expert explained.
The political scientist added that if this project is realized, the idea of a gas hub in Turkey will acquire an additional dimension.
- After all, the Turks will try to concentrate Russian, Central Asian, Transcaucasian and Qatari gas in their hands. In addition, the Turks have views on gas from the Eastern Mediterranean - the Leviathan, Leviathan-2, Aphrodite fields off the Cypriot coast, plus some gas fields off the Egyptian coast," the expert believes.
In his opinion, in this case we get a country with a huge valve. And as soon as it appears in one hands, there are opportunities for manipulation.
Israel, in turn, is expanding its zone of occupation in Syria. The prospects for its withdrawal from those territories are very dim. "It is not for that Israelis go there to leave later," the analyst is sure.
Ontikov emphasizes that in strategic terms for Turkey there is a big threat in the face of the Americans.
- After all, the U.S. is set on the realization of the Kurdish project - the creation of an independent Kurdistan. A referendum was held in Iraqi Kurdistan several years ago. The Syrian Kurds have announced the creation of a federal region, they emphasize in every possible way that they stand with Damascus for the territorial integrity of Syria, but the situation may change at any moment, - believes the orientalist.
The political scientist believes that the future Kurdish state should also include part of Iran's territory and a huge part of Turkey's territory.
- The American project is a significant threat to Turkey, the U.S. has nowhere to hurry, they can realize it for five or ten years. This project is fully supported by Israel, because the creation of a Kurdish state would be a powerful blow to the Arab and Islamic world," the expert emphasized.
To what extent Turkey will be able to resist is a matter of the future, the interlocutor added. The main thing for Russia now is to preserve its bases. Ontikov believes that there is a bargaining process underway, but other players who are just beginning to make themselves known are adding to the difficulties.
- This is the European Union, which has conditioned the resumption of relations with Syria and the lifting of sanctions on the country on the fact that Damascus must expel Russian military bases and end the Russian military presence. The bargaining is going on, its final outcome is difficult to predict," the analyst summarized.
Problems for Turkey
Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the Republic of Turkey has taken Syria in its stride and is not eager to let it go.
A drone image shows the Umayyad Mosque after the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria
- Ankara now feels like the winner of the situation, because in essence what it has been waiting for all these years has happened. However, the ideal scenario for her would be a situation in which she alone would have influence in the region, without various external players," the Turkologist explained.
She added that Turkey is now actively pursuing contacts with new pretenders to power, although they have been established for a long time.
- Turkey together with Qatar has been supervising the Syrian opposition since the beginning of the Arab Spring. Russia is too invested in this region to give it away to someone like this. As President Vladimir Putin said last week, the fall of Bashar al-Assad is not a defeat for Russia, it has more important strategic goals, and the presence of Russian military bases is proof of that," the expert said.
The political scientist emphasized that Turkey's main problem remains not so much the Russian bases as the policy of the United States, Ankara's ally in the North Atlantic Alliance.
- And also Israel, which actively allies with Washington and claims the Golan Heights and significant territories of the Syrian Arab Republic. With regard to Israel, Turkey's position is more similar to that of Russia, which also adheres to the policy of territorial integrity and criticizes Israel's policy," the expert concluded.
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