Footballer vs. Frenchwoman: Georgia on the threshold of dual power
Protests of the pro-Western opposition have erupted with renewed vigor in Georgia after a break. Thousands of people have been taking to the streets of Tbilisi for several days in a row, against this backdrop, the incumbent President Salome Zurabishvili has issued an ultimatum to the ruling party. According to her, the authorities must announce early parliamentary elections within the current week - until December 29. "Izvestia" looked into the situation.
Rallies continue in Tbilisi
In mid-December, protests in Georgia experienced a noticeable crisis. At that time, the ruling party was able to elect a new president quite routinely, he became MP and former footballer Mikhail Kavelashvili. The election procedure, which took place in the parliament building on December 14, contrary to expectations, did not cause any surge of opposition activity, about 1-2 thousand participants came out to rallies several evenings in a row.
At the weekend, however, instead of the final fade-out, a new surge occurred. Thus, in the evening of December 21, about 20 different marches took place in Tbilisi, including marches of Svans, Adjarians, students, yoga lovers, social workers and many others. The most colorful was the action of dancers who performed the national dance khorumi as they marched. Opposition sources eventually counted 188,000 participants, a figure that is obviously overstated, but various videos show that there were indeed many people gathered.
A protest outside the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi, December 22, 2024.
Then on December 22, nine different marches took place, which eventually joined near the parliament building, the video footage again shows the filled streets of Tbilisi. The authorities and the opposition explain the reasons for the current outburst in different ways. For example, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze assures that pro-Western NGOs and non-profit organizations have announced full mobilization in order to show "at least some result". According to him, protest sources are also engaged in blatant forgery, including publishing old photos from last year's rallies.
In turn, the opposition says that new tactics are bringing success. First, the protesters have given up street battles with law enforcers and attempts to storm the parliament building, thanks to which more women, children and the elderly came to the rallies. Secondly, special marches for representatives of different spheres, professions and ages help mobilize different groups of the population. The marches themselves are becoming like a fun ethno-festival with protest slogans, a format that is well received in the run-up to the New Year holidays.
President Zurabishvili has issued an ultimatum
The next key date on the Georgian political calendar is December 29, which is the day of inauguration of the new President Mikhail Kavelashvili. The powers of the incumbent head of state, opposition supporter and French citizen Salome Zurabishvili will expire. It is clear that if everything goes according to plan, the positions of the protest camp will weaken.
In such conditions the opposition is thinking about disrupting the inauguration. It is known that at first Zurabishvili was going to announce new parliamentary elections by her own decision. In the end, however, this scenario was abandoned because such a step would be an obvious criminal offense. The fact is that the Georgian legislation allows the appointment of re-elections if the CEC and the Constitutional Court recognize the past vote invalid, but these bodies, on the contrary, confirmed the legitimacy of the procedure.
Mikhail Kavelashvili
As a result, at a rally on December 22, Zurabishvili demanded that by the end of this week the ruling party itself announce the appointment of new elections. According to her, Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili should agree to the negotiations. "I am ready for us to sit down and decide when elections will be called. Only the date should be agreed upon by December 29. I am and will be the president and commander-in-chief," she announced.
In the ruling party has already responded that no negotiations should not wait. Thus, the country's Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili said that the outgoing president's claims are groundless. "This is a completely illegitimate claim, but we know that this person pays no attention to the Constitution or other legal norms when it comes to her personal interests," she noted. In turn, MP Lado Bozhadze said that the next elections will be held strictly according to the schedule - exactly in four years.
At the same time, Prime Minister Kobakhidze says that Zurabishvili will have to leave the presidential post on December 29. According to him, if she fails to do so, she may end up behind bars. "Let's imagine that she entrenched herself in the presidential residence, in that case it will be considered a criminal offense. Putting a 72-year-old woman in jail may not be something anyone would want to do, but she will definitely sacrifice and frame all those people who will be around her," he argued.
The ruling party is waiting for Trump's arrival
In parallel, the Georgian tug-of-war in the international arena continues. Thus, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) presented the final report on the Georgian parliamentary elections. The document does not give an unambiguous assessment of the past voting, which allows the parties to read it in their favor. Thus, representatives of the authorities quote paragraphs that say that the elections were generally well organized, all parties had the opportunity to campaign freely.
The opposition draws attention to criticism of the electoral process. Thus, the report speaks, among other things, of massive pressure on voters, violation of the secrecy of the vote, negligent handling of complaints in the post-election period, and "brutal suppression of protests." Following the publication of the document, the four opposition parties issued a joint statement saying that the report allegedly set the stage for calling new elections.
The second important episode was the visit of the Secretary General of the Council of Europe Alain Berset to Tbilisi. Following the visit he said that he had agreed with the Georgian authorities that they would think about changing the scandalous law on foreign agents. For this purpose, an international working group should be created with the participation of officials and deputies from the Georgian Dream. Representatives of the Georgian authorities said afterwards that the creation of the commission would confirm the legitimacy of the government and put an end to attempts at isolation.
In general, Tbilisi is looking forward to the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump in the United States. It is believed that under him, relations with Washington and the West in general will improve dramatically. "Donald Trump has noted that his goal is to free the US structures from all sorts of deep state waste. If he does this, it will directly affect the interests of Georgia, relations between the US and Georgia will be improved," claims Prime Minister Kobakhidze.
What experts say
Georgian analyst Zaal Anjaparidze believes that the situation in the country can develop according to two scenarios.
- The first one assumes that Salome Zurabishvili will voluntarily resign on December 29. In the second scenario she will barricade herself in the presidential residence, the police will extract her from there by force, a loud scandal will take place and media noise will be raised. I would also draw attention to her statement that she remains commander-in-chief, which means that she may issue some kind of address to the armed forces. In which case the prospect of civil war looms somewhere on the horizon. However, I don't think anyone will respond to her appeal - she has neither authority nor credibility in military circles," he says.
President of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili
Andrei Areshev, a Russian political scientist and expert of the Strategic Culture Foundation, says that the Georgian political system will face a serious test in the coming days.
- Mrs. Zurabishvili is in a parallel reality, she very much does not want to leave the presidential post, but, in general, this desire is not enough, there are still quite objective results of the parliamentary and presidential elections. Probably, in the coming days we will see a surge of destructive activity. But it seems to me that the ruling party and the government will confidently pass the test of strength and will be able to defend the constitutional order," he emphasizes.
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