Trade bumps: Russia drops to 13th place among EU's top partners
Russia has fallen to 13th place among the EU's trade partners, the Russian post mission to the European Union told Izvestia. They specified that the sanctions were to blame, which are more harmful to the EU than to Russia. Diplomats also predict a further decline in trade in 2025. At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban actively opposes the sanctions. According to media reports, on December 19, he said that he would wait for the inauguration of Donald Trump and then decide whether or not to support the extension of EU restrictions against our country. The expert community did not rule out the existence of personal agreements between the Hungarian leader and the president-elect of the United States on this issue. About the EU sanctions policy and its opponents in the countries of the community - in the material of "Izvestia".
Decline in trade between the EU and Russia
European sanctions continue to have a negative impact on trade relations between Russia and the EU. In particular, the Russian Federation has fallen back to 13th place in terms of mutual trade turnover, the Russian Permanent Mission to the EU told Izvestia. Thus, Russia took the place after the United States, China, Great Britain, Switzerland, Turkey, Norway, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Brazil, Mexico and Canada.
According to the results of the past nine months, the EU trade turnover with Russia decreased by 26.9% compared to the same period of 2023 - from €69.4 billion to €50.7 billion. The corresponding figure last year was 66.9%.
- Thus, there is a slight slowdown in the rate of decline in mutual trade. Apparently, this was a consequence of the fact that a significant part of the commodity positions of our exports to the EU and counter imports have already been significantly restricted by sanctions, - stated in the Russian Permanent Mission to the EU.
At the same time, mutual trade between Russia and the EU continues to decline. Relying on Eurostat data, Izvestia calculated that for the first ten months of 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year, Russia's export of goods to the EU countries decreased by 31.6% - from €43.4 billion to €29.6 billion. In turn, for the same period of 2024, Russia received from the EU goods worth €26.9 billion, while from January to October 2023 this figure was €32.3 billion, indicating a 16.4% decrease in European exports to Russia in this period.
Before the EU chose the path of sanctions pressure, Russia ranked fifth among the main trade and economic partners of the EU, and even at the end of 2023 it was at the bottom of the top 10 list. However, Europe does not intend to turn from this path. On December 16, the European Council adopted the 15th package of sanctions - the third this year. It included 54 individuals and 30 companies. Restrictions were also imposed against 52 tankers from third countries transporting Russian oil. Moreover, on December 19, at a summit in Brussels, the EU heads of state said they were ready to "intensify pressure on Russia, including by adopting new sanctions." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already confirmed that the EU is preparing a 16th package of restrictions.
As long as the EU considers cooperation with Russia exclusively through the prism of further escalation of sanctions and reduction of economic interaction, no changes in trade and economic relations between the community and the Russian Federation should be expected, the post office emphasized.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
- The next sanctions "packages", as well as the proposals of a number of member states being worked on in Brussels to increase duties on Russian imports to the EU, which are not yet covered by the bans, if adopted, will lead to a further decline in trade volumes in 2025," Russian diplomats predict.
Opposition to the sanctions from Hungary and Slovakia
However, some EU leaders see the futility of the chosen strategy of economic and sanctions opposition to Russia. According to Bloomberg, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told European heads of state at the summit that Budapest would wait until the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump before deciding whether or not to extend the restrictions already imposed on Moscow. Under EU law, sanctions are renewed every six months by a unanimous decision of all 27 members of the community. Once again they will have to do so on January 31, that is, 11 days after Trump took office.
At the same time, Bloomberg writes: European leaders fear that "the Hungarian Prime Minister may partner with Trump to destroy the bloc's unity on the issue of financial and military support for Ukraine." It is worth noting that Viktor Orban from the very beginning opposed the imposition of sanctions. So, in October 2022, his country held national consultations to learn the opinion of citizens on the EU sanctions policy. Then, according to the authorities, almost 1.4 million of the country's 10 million inhabitants took part in the consultations, and on average 97% of respondents were opposed.
Interestingly, a November poll conducted by the European service Eurobarometer showed that only 33% of EU residents unconditionally support sanctions against Russia. 38% said that they rather support than do not support the restrictions. At the same time, 24% have a negative attitude to the restrictions. In Hungary, as well as in Greece, the number of those dissatisfied with the EU sanctions policy reaches 46%. The greatest number of opponents of sanctions lives in Cyprus - 59%.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo (left) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (right)
Hungary may resist the introduction of new sanctions at the EU level until Washington fully determines its foreign policy course, said Oleg Nemensky, a leading researcher at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.
- It is possible that Orban has some personal agreements with Trump. "Therefore, the Hungarian prime minister's task is to delay the time of decision-making until the new political situation," he told Izvestia.
Be that as it may, but on December 16, Hungary managed, according to the country's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó, to "weed out" the "craziest ideas" from the 15th package of sanctions. In particular, Hungary succeeded in excluding Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia, Russia's post-president to the UN Vasily Nebenzi and the Russian Olympic Committee from the new list of restrictions. In November 2023, it was Hungary that vetoed the EU sanctions against Russian nuclear power discussed in the EU.
By the way, on December 19, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo said at a press conference after the EU summit that his country would block sanctions against the peaceful atom program. He called such measures unacceptable, pointing to the "Russian origin" of Slovak nuclear power plants and the long tradition of cooperation between the countries in this area.
Consequences of sanctions for the EU economy
In any case, Brussels' sanctions policy is not without consequences for the European Union. In mid-November, the European Commission in its fall economic forecast lowered expectations for GDP growth in 2024 to 0.9% instead of the expected 1%. For the second year in a row, the GDP of Germany, the economic engine of Europe, has also declined. This year the decline will amount to 0.2%. This is largely due to rising energy prices in the EU, which in turn is caused by a reduction in Russian gas supplies. The latter has already led to the closure of a large number of businesses. For example, in December 2023, more than 50 fertilizer plants in Europe stopped operating, as 75% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizers is based on gas prices.
- It is obvious to sensible European politicians and businesses: the sanctions have not achieved their stated goals; they have done more harm to the EU itself than to Russia. Unfortunately, the European bureaucracy stubbornly continues its confrontational anti-Russian course and is rather aimed at further curtailing the remaining economic ties with Russia," noted the Russian Federation's Permanent Mission to the European Union.
At the same time, it seems that the new sanctions are imposed by Brussels in an attempt to save face and pretend that the EU's support for Ukraine is not weakening. At the same time, it seems that European officials are gradually coming to realize that the stated goal of "defeating Russia" still exceeds the real capabilities of the EU. Thus, the resolution adopted at the end of the summit on December 19 states that "Russia must not prevail. At the same time, a few days earlier, the Council's website had published the wording "Ukraine must win this conflict". A spokesperson for the council later told Politico that the wording on the website was in error and would be corrected.
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