Germanist pointed to Scholz's slim chances of retaining the chancellor's post

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is unlikely to be able to stay in office after the election, as the ratings of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), which he represents, are currently low. Historian, political scientist and Germanist Yevgenia Pimenova told Izvestia on December 20.

Earlier in the day, a representative of the Office of the President of Germany Kerstin Gammelin in social network X reported that the head of state Frank-Walter Steinmeier plans to decide on the dissolution of the Bundestag on December 27. The German leader said he had held talks with the chairmen of factions and groups in the Bundestag to make sure there were no other options.

"According to the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany, until the formation of the new Bundestag, the chancellor and the federal government continue to exercise their powers in full," Pimenova commented.

She noted that even after the first meeting of the new Bundestag, the government retains its functions, performing current tasks until a new Cabinet is formed. The federal president acts as guarantor, the interlocutor of the publication specified.

"Scholz will retain his position until February 23 - he will formally be the chancellor of the minority government. The dissolution of parliament is in itself a signal of early elections. The SPD rating now fluctuates around 14-15%, in any case it is not a bid for the position of chancellor in the new cadence," concluded the political analyst.

Earlier, on December 16, the Bundestag withdrew confidence from the Scholz government. At the vote on the request that the chancellor sent on December 11, less than a third of deputies voted in favor of Scholz. He has since suggested that President Steinmeier dissolve the Bundestag, which would require calling early elections.

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Scholz announced his plans to raise the issue of a vote of confidence in the government in the Bundestag in early November. Steinmeier then endorsed February 23, 2025, as a possible date for early parliamentary elections. The SPD leadership unanimously nominated Scholz. Pimenova, a Germanist political scientist, estimates that Merz is the most likely contender to succeed him.

Ruslan Andreev, a political consultant and expert at the Polylog Group, noted that Scholz had followed the path of French President Emmanuel Macron, deciding to hold early elections to retain power, but he is unlikely to repeat the same scheme. Macron in June also announced the dissolution of the National Assembly (the lower house of the French parliament) and early elections. The New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties, won the elections.