Political analyst calls Ukraine's admission to NATO highly unlikely

Western countries see Ukraine as part of Europe's strategic architecture, but this is not enough to admit the country to NATO. In addition, US President-elect Donald Trump is skeptical about the alliance in principle, and he will make a decision on Ukraine's joining the bloc based on the outcome of the conflict in the region. This was stated by Enes Karakhanov, chairman of the International Center for Countering Crime and Terrorism and international political scientist, in a conversation with Izvestiya on December 19.

On the previous day, Michael Carpenter, special assistant to the US president and director for European affairs at the National Security Council, said that NATO had no consensus on Ukraine's admission. He also emphasized that it will depend on Trump whether Kiev will join the alliance.

"Donald Trump, as a past president, has repeatedly demonstrated skepticism about NATO, calling it a relic of the Cold War, and criticized the allies for insufficient financial contributions. His policy toward Russia, however, has been controversial. <...> It is quite difficult to predict his approach to Ukrainian membership in the alliance - Trump is a rational player, but we can always expect sudden 'surprises'," Karakhanov commented.

However, he added, NATO is unlikely to accept into its ranks a state that is in the active phase of a military conflict to avoid the risk of a direct clash with Russia. The same position is emphasized by the conditions put forward by the allies: cessation of hostilities and reaching consensus within the alliance, the expert said.

Discussing the prospects for Ukraine in 2025, the interlocutor of the publication said, it is important to take into account the geopolitical dynamics. Thus, if the Trump administration considers that Ukraine's inclusion in the alliance will help strengthen the U.S. strategic position in Europe and increase pressure on Russia, the issue may be moved from the dead point, where it is actually now. At the same time, the decision on Ukraine's membership will also depend on the willingness of other NATO members to agree to such a risky step.

"Ukraine's accession to NATO in 2025 and beyond cannot be ruled out even by Russia's national security projections. However, this event is extremely unlikely. It would require simultaneously solving military, political and diplomatic problems, which in the conditions of the current conflict looks like an extremely difficult task," he summarized.

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The day before, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that Ukraine would join NATO only if Kiev continues reforms of military institutions and strengthens democracy inside the country. He emphasized that Ukraine should be and will be in NATO.

Before that, on December 10, the deputy head of the Ukrainian president's office, Ihor Zhovkva, said that the country's accession to NATO was "beyond the reach" of the Kiev regime and that it was not a matter of the near future.

Ukraine applied to join NATO on an accelerated basis on September 30, 2022. At the time, Zelenskyy said that in fact the country was already in the alliance and met its standards.