Fish class: there will be no shortage of caviar
There is enough red caviar for everyone, the press service of Rosrybolovstvo reported. "In the Far East, fishermen have harvested 235,465.5 tons of salmon. This is enough to supply the domestic market," representatives of the department told Izvestia. Earlier, the head of the Fish Union, Alexander Panin, said that caviar prices would drop by 10% as early as January. What factors will affect the caviar market in 2025 and whether prices will fall, "Izvestia" found out.
Everyone will get some
According to Alexander Panin, due to the high cost of caviar, the demand for this product fell in November. Experts claim that there will be no shortage of red caviar, which was feared due to the low level of catch in 2024.
Rosrybolovstvo stressed that in 2024 the catch of aquatic bioresources will be at the level of average values for five years and will be about 5 million tons. "Thus, a record was set for the production of sardine ivasi, the catch exceeded 570.2 thousand tons - the best figure for the entire post-Soviet period. In the Far East basin, 1,889.6 thousand tons of pollock were also caught, 28.52 thousand tons more than last year. Thanks to the renewal of the fishing fleet, the efficiency of fishing has increased, the catch of fish in the Sea of Azov has increased by one third," the press service of the Federal Fishery Agency told the newspaper.
"Izvestia" sent inquiries about the state of the red caviar market also to other agencies. The press service of Rosselkhoznadzor recommended to contact the Ministry of Agriculture on the issues of price control.
On the wave of hype
There is always an increase in prices close to the New Year, but now the market is overheated due to reports that the poutine was bad. According to official data, last year's catch was about 600 thousand tons of fish, and this year - almost three times less, less than 240 thousand tons. In 2023, about 25 thousand tons of caviar was produced, with 9-10 thousand tons going for export and the rest for consumption inside Russia. And it was enough to meet domestic demand and make significant carryover stocks for this year, says Anatoly Tikhonov, PhD in Economics, Director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security of the Higher School of Management of the Presidential Academy.
According to the expert, in 2024, prices reached a record - over Br13 thousand per 1 kg of caviar - because of the hype around the topic.
- Of course, it scared consumers, they are not ready to buy caviar for such money. Someone switched to imitation or lower quality products. The demand has significantly decreased, and the goods need to be sold. Therefore, caviar prices in November began to decline, by about 10%. And after the holidays, when the excitement will completely subside, prices may fall by another 7-10%, - he predicts.
What to expect in 2025
Prices for red caviar in 2025 will be known by the results of the next harvest. At the same time, the interviewed experts are confident that the government will not allow the sales to be skewed towards exports.
- The cost of a can of caviar will also depend on the world market and the growth rate of costs of Russian fishermen. But we will not see a shortage of caviar," says Anatoly Tikhonov.
The decrease in the volume of catch in 2024 is a natural process, said Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the analytical agency VMT Consult, in an interview with the publication.
- This is due to even and odd years in the life cycle of salmon fish, and last year turned out to be a record catch. Caviar, produced in accordance with all quality standards, is stored for two years, which is enough to survive a low-fish year. But even then, the available volumes are enough to saturate the domestic market," she says.
Peculiarities of the gray market
Rosselkhoznadzor and Rospotrebnadzor are fighting against counterfeit red caviar. Official stores and large chains do not receive such products. Rosselkhoznadzor and Rospotrebnadzor did not respond to Izvestia's inquiries.
Also every year there are stricter legal requirements, recalls Tikhonov. "If before it was possible to smuggle "gray" red caviar by public transport (airplane, train), now it is difficult with this - the control is strengthened," he says. The expert also noted the negative impact of poaching, which destroys the biomass necessary for fish reproduction.
Nevertheless, it is impossible to eradicate counterfeiting because of the peculiarities of marketing, says Ekaterina Kosareva.
- In particular, "gray" red caviar is sold through communities in social networks, through groups in messengers of territorial associations (house chats, SNT chats, etc.). It is not safe to eat such products: the consumer does not know where and in compliance with what sanitary and hygienic requirements (more often - none) these products were made," comments the analyst.
According to the Union of Sturgeon Breeders, the share of illegal Chinese caviar in the domestic market approached 40% several years ago. The problem of "gray" sales of red caviar was solved at the highest level. Since the start of mandatory labeling in eight months, imports of sturgeon caviar are only 2%, according to the data of the operator of the state labeling system "Honest Mark" (CRPT).
- Before the start of labeling, there were 861 participants in the market. In eight months, 78 production facilities have come out of the shadows, which previously did not report to the state in any way. In total, more than 36 thousand participants are currently registered in the labeling system. Over the past three months, thanks to the labeling system was able to identify 116 tons of caviar from unknown raw materials, which may indicate falsification of products, - said "Izvestia" in the CRPT.
The organization reminded that labeling in the caviar market is a mandatory requirement: "The absence of a code on the jar indicates the illegality of the product. Such caviar can be dangerous and harmful to the health of the consumer," - added in the press service of the enterprise.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
