An analyst assessed the consequences for the EU from the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in January threatens a significant price hike, the whole of Europe will suffer, including businesses and the population. This was stated by Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, an expert and lecturer at the Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation, to Izvestia on December 18.

On the eve of Bloomberg agency with reference to the statement of Slovak gas company SPP reported that the key companies of Central Europe signed a declaration in support of the continuation of gas transit through Ukraine in 2025. It noted that Slovakia itself would be costing more than €220 million ($231 million) to purchase and transit gas from another source, while in Ukraine "would cause irreversible damage to the Ukrainian gas infrastructure."

"They signed this declaration because the EU leadership started making strange statements, the companies just couldn't stay away. There is a risk of stopping transit through Ukraine, quite real, which means that the European market will be deprived of about 15 billion cubic meters per year. These are quite substantial volumes. Especially if transit stops on January 1, at the height of the heating season, of course, this could cause a price hike, quite significant, especially if it gets colder. Business will suffer, first of all, the consumer, the population," Yushkov said.

The expert drew attention to the fact that "European business has finally raised its voice and talked about rational things". He noted that absolutely all consumers in Europe will suffer if Russian gas transit through Ukraine is stopped.

Yushkov warned that such a move threatens to increase the costs of gas purchases in the European Union (EU). He reminded that the Russian pipeline gas supply is the best on the market.

"For everyone, necessarily for those who buy Russian gas, it will be a double blow. That is, Slovakia, for example, will also lose transit money, because gas is pumped through it to Austria. <...> The rest of Europe will suffer simply because prices will rise," the analyst concluded.

Who was hit by the termination of gas transit through Ukraine. Parsing

Prior to that, on December 13, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo said that the country was negotiating the continuation of gas supplies through the Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said on December 16 that Kiev was not going to prolong the gas transit agreement. In its turn, against the backdrop of the situation in Moldova, a state of emergency has been imposed since December 16 due to the threat of a humanitarian crisis.

On 6 November, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak pointed out that European countries were interested in the continuation of gas transit from Russia through Ukraine, and the Russian side was ready to supply energy resources. At the same time, due to Ukraine's unreliability in this area, a number of states found themselves in a difficult situation, he noted.

Before that, on September 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the IX Eastern Economic Forum (WEF-2024) in Vladivostok that Russia is not giving up gas transit through Ukraine. According to Putin, Gazprom intends to fulfill all its obligations under long-term contracts, including transit. He specified that the contract on gas supply through Ukraine ends on December 31.