- Статьи
- Economy
- "The first cross-border transactions with the CFA have already taken place this year"
"The first cross-border transactions with the CFA have already taken place this year"
This year, the first cross-border transactions with the CFA took place in Russia, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, told Izvestia in an interview. Transactions have been tested with Belarus. Next year there will be a breakthrough in this market, including in the field of international settlements, expects the deputy. He has also told that by the summer of 2025 the universal QR code will definitely work, it will be placed at every cash register. Next year a multilevel system of protection of citizens from credit fraud will also be introduced. For example, a cooling-off period for consumer loans will start to operate - it may be two days for loans above Br200 thousand. Whether they will launch new programs of preferential mortgages, how they plan to regulate installments and stimulate investment, as well as what will happen to the key rate - in an interview with Anatoly Aksakov "Izvestia".
"New rules for regulating installment payments may come into force as early as the second half of 2025"
- In early December, it was planned to discuss the draft law on the introduction of installment regulation. What was the outcome?
- The bill on installment regulation is still under consideration in the State Duma without movement, as there is still no government review, the deadline expired back in October.
Now there are several points of view. One position is that now it is not worth regulating installments at all, so as not to "crush" the new market. And the other is that installments are actually a loan and should be controlled in the same way - by bank financial legislation.
The authorities have agreed that paid installments should be regulated. The Central Bank proposes to start with installments above Br15 thousand, while the market wants to increase this figure. I assume that by the second reading the amount will be raised to Br60 thousand.
In this case, banks will be obliged to transfer information about installments over 60 thousand to the BCI. In addition, only professional market participants will be able to issue paid installments above this amount. We are moving towards the fact that paid installments will be regulated as a consumer loan, everything rests only on the amount after which this control should be carried out.
- When can the new rules come into force?
- I expect that we will adopt the bill in the first half of 2025. There will need to be a certain period for market participants to adapt to the changes. Then the new rules on the regulation of installment payments may come into force in the second half of 2025.
"The cooling off period for consumer credit installments will come into effect in 2025"
- The Central Bank said that a multi-level system of protection of citizens from credit fraud is being prepared and a draft law has already been prepared. In particular, it is planned to oblige banks to transfer data on the issuance of credit to the BCI for a period of less than a day. What exactly is the term being discussed?
- Such a system is really being prepared now. It is planned to oblige banks to transfer data on loan issuance to the BCI for a period not exceeding one working day, and the Bureau of Credit Histories - the same, within a day, to process this information, and on request to provide it to other credit organizations in online mode. This is necessary for banks to see the full picture when granting loans.
For example, if under the influence of fraudsters, the client will apply for another loan in another bank, he will be able to immediately see and recently approved loans.
- The Central Bank also suggested introducing a cooling-off period when issuing loans. Have they already agreed on the amounts and time of suspension of these operations?
- Yes, the authorities have already agreed in principle on the introduction of a cooling-off period in the issuance of consumer loans, there are no objections. Now we are discussing thresholds and suspension periods. One of the proposals: a cooling-off period of four hours for loans from Br50 thousand to Br200 thousand and for two days if the loan amount is more than Br200 thousand.
- Have the banks opposed it, given that it could slow down loan disbursement?
- So far, everyone agrees that it is necessary to slow down the issuance of consumer loans. The cooling off period will help reduce credit fraud. Nowadays, criminals often use a scheme where they force a person to take out a loan and transfer money to a supposedly safe account, but in reality to a fraudster. In general, banks are already coloring such transactions as suspicious.
Now they need to be pushed to take more decisive action. If legislation makes it mandatory to suspend a transaction, it will make it easier to fight the attackers. I'm sure the number of crimes will drop dramatically.
- When do you think the cooling-off period and the new deadlines for data transfer to the BCI may start to take effect?
- I believe we will pass this bill in the first half of 2025. Technologically, it may take time for banks to speed up data transfer to the BCI and introduce other changes. But the cooling-off period for issuing consumer loans will start to take effect as early as 2025.
"By the summer of 2025, the universal QR code will definitely work and will be placed at every cash register"
- How is the discussion of the bill on introduction of the universal QR code, which is planned to be used also for the digital ruble, progressing? Are there plans to change something in this bill?
- So far there is a unified position of the Central Bank, the government and the majority of market participants that it is necessary to introduce a universal QR code. Several major players have a different opinion - that in addition to the centralized QR code, which is being prepared by the NSPC, other codes should be allowed to be placed. This issue is still under discussion, but the prevailing position is that a universal QR code will simplify the interaction between a buyer and a seller of goods and services.
The idea of the universal QR code appeared in order to ease the client's path and reduce the costs of buyers. The NSPC will set very low rates for paying for purchases by centralized QR, so people will spend less money on this service. Although competition is also important.
I think we will pass a law on universal QR in the first quarter of next year. We want to spell it out and we expect that it will also be used for digital ruble payments. That's why by the summer of 2025 the universal QR code will definitely work and will be placed at every cash register.
- I would also like to touch upon another topic. Proposals to introduce new programs of preferential mortgages were first discussed in the State Duma, then the same initiative was put forward in the Council of Ministers. Do you think such new programs are necessary for certain professions or territories, given that it is virtually impossible to take out a market mortgage at the current key mortgage rate? Will you propose to introduce them?
- In order for such programs to exist, we need to allocate significant sums from the treasury. This money is used to compensate banks for low interest rates. However, the budget is quite tight now, and there are no funds for such interest subsidies. At the federal level, there are no plans to introduce new programs of preferential mortgages, but the regions will be able to create their own, separate, solutions.
This is normal, because each constituent entity of the Russian Federation has its own specifics and structure of personnel it needs. Based on this, the regions will be able to introduce separate programs of preferential mortgages and allocate funds in their budgets to subsidize the interest rate. At the federal level, for example, the family mortgage program is now in effect.
"I admit that we will come out with an initiative to fix the term of the IIS-3 at the level of five years"
- To support families, President Vladimir Putin recently instructed to create a line of family investment instruments with an increased deduction of 1 million rubles. Will this require changes to legislation and how can it work?
- The idea is interesting, it will encourage families to make collective investment decisions in order to receive benefits from the state. We will legalize this proposal in the near future. Different instruments can be used: IIS, life insurance policies.
Currently, the program of long-term savings and IIS provides for a maximum tax deduction of 400 thousand per person, while the new instrument will allow a family to receive a deduction of Br1 million.
- The President has set a goal of doubling the capitalization of the stock market by 2030. Are any other proposals being worked out to reach this goal?
- A set of proposals is now being prepared to make the investment market a serious competitor to the banking market in dealing with household funds. We held large parliamentary hearings and agreed that the market should present its initiatives. There it will be possible to stimulate the development of the stock market. Pension savings and the insurance market should also become sources of "long money" to be used for the structural reorganization of the economy.
- Have any specific proposals been made?
- For example, there was a proposal related to individual investment accounts. The term for attracting funds under them is now five years, but it should be gradually increased to ten years. According to the market, this is too long, people are not ready to wait ten years. At the same time, investments for five years provide a rather large resource. This sounds convincing to me. I admit that we will come out with an initiative to fix the term of IIS-3 at the level of five years.
"Russia may introduce tax incentives for companies that go public"
- The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance also discussed changes to currency legislation so that foreigners, including those from unfriendly states, could invest in Russian securities and withdraw money without problems. Are there plans to make such changes next year?
- Yes, we are actively working on this issue. We need to make sure that all investment privileges also apply to foreigners. There are also plans to allow foreigners to freely withdraw money from the Russian stock market if they have not violated any laws. I am in favor of making sure that this applies not only to investors from friendly countries, but also from unfriendly countries.
We should involve investors also from unfriendly countries in our economy and offer such investment options that will encourage them to work with us even without the direct consent of their authorities.
- However, money in "C" accounts is not planned to be affected?
- Foreigners' money in "C" accounts was frozen in response to the blocking of our assets abroad - both citizens and the Central Bank. And we will not give up this decision until the illegal actions of the West are withdrawn.
- In addition to the goal of doubling the capitalization of the stock market, the president also set the task of increasing investment in key industries. What are we supposed to do to accomplish this?
- We need funds that will be used for structural reorganization of the economy. We are discussing many different options for this purpose. The government should encourage companies to raise funds through securities and market instruments, rather than by taking out loans from banks. For example, Russia may introduce tax incentives for companies that go public. I assume that these proposals will be submitted to the State Duma in the near future.
Perhaps CFA should also be included in the subsidy program and create tax incentives for the development of this market. Companies can also use CFA to raise funds for the structural reorganization of the economy.
I think that next year will see a breakthrough in the market of digital financial assets, including international settlements. The first cross-border transactions with CFA have already taken place this year. The transaction was conducted between Russia and Belarus, and it was successful. In general, the future lies in this market, and I am in favor of its active development.
"There are no plans to increase the amount of insurance of funds on deposits"
- Now there are often proposals to increase the insurance of funds on deposits. Back in April, the Central Bank proposed to increase the insurance indemnity for deposits over three years to 2 million, and for irrevocable savings certificates over three years - to 2.8 million. How is the discussion of this issue going?
- There were indeed such proposals. However, then the Central Bank reported that the savings of 98% of citizens who keep money in banks do not exceed 1.4 million rubles. These funds are already fully protected by the deposit insurance system. There is only a small group of people who keep large sums, and they are more likely to understand financial products. Therefore, the remaining 2% should be encouraged to invest in other financial instruments so that the funds work in the economy.
Larger sums are guaranteed in other instruments, for example, in HSAs, PDS - 2.8 million rubles. The authorities are constantly increasing the amount of compensation in those areas, which the state considers promising and important for our country. There are no plans to increase the amount of insurance of funds on deposits.
- Some economists have expressed the opinion that if the key rate is lowered, people will take money out of deposits and "crazy inflation will start in the market". Therefore, deposits may be frozen now in order to stop inflation. What do you think about it?
- Such a decision will destroy the normal functioning of the economy. No one will do it.
Bank rates on deposits and on loans are largely determined by the key rate. The Bank of Russia will reduce the key rate only as inflation falls. This will be an absolutely manageable orderly process, which will allow money to be withdrawn from deposits for consumption very gradually. Therefore, the Central Bank does not see any risks here.
- The issue of multiplying the fines of banks for deceiving consumers has long been discussed. How is the discussion going?
- The liability of credit organizations for misleading citizens is planned to be considerably toughened. Penalties for banks for misleading and introduction of hidden commissions will be increased. Moreover, sanctions will be applied to both financial organizations and employees who impose services and deceive consumers. For repeated deception of customers banks are proposed to introduce a fine of 1% of the capital. The first half of next year we will devote a lot of attention to this topic to bring order.
"In the first half of 2025, the Central Bank may lower the rate to 17%"
- And to conclude with a small blitz poll. When do you think the key rate will start to fall?
- Everything now suggests that the Bank of Russia has taken control of the situation, it is signaling to the market that despite the consequences of the key rate increase, the Central Bank will pursue a tight credit policy. We will achieve a reduction in inflation, and I think that in the first quarter of 2025 the key rate will start to decrease. This will happen gradually, so that we can monitor changes in the situation. According to my estimates, in the first half of 2025, the Central Bank may lower the rate to 17%.
- Do you expect inflation to decline next year?
- Yes, this is due to the fact that after the problems with imported goods, many enterprises needed time to readjust their processes and set up new production. Now they are gradually starting up, and this will lead to market saturation. We have also managed to better organize the supply of goods from abroad, which we do not produce ourselves, in the required quantity.
- What will happen to the dollar exchange rate next year?
- I think that the dollar exchange rate will go down. All objective factors speak about it - both the workload of production and foreign trade settlements. Therefore, most likely, next year the ruble exchange rate will strengthen below 100 per dollar.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
