Economic growth in Russia will slow to 1.5% in 2025

All 15 experts and market participants polled by Izvestia agreed that the economy will grow in 2025. Thus, the average value of the consensus forecast is about 1.5%. The most positive assessment was given in the investment bank "Sinara" - an increase of at least 2.5%. And the most negative - in "BKS Investment World", where they expect about zero growth. At the same time, in the September macro-forecast the Ministry of Energy laid down the increase of economy in 2025 by 2.5%.

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The main factor of uncertainty remains geopolitics - the structure of the economy and public finances will depend on the vector of its development, believes Vladimir Evstifeev, Head of Analytical Department of Zenit Bank. In addition, the internal risk will be further tightening of monetary policy, believes Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.

"The main driver of the economy next year will remain domestic demand, which will continue to grow due to the increase in household incomes and investment activity of the state and business," said Denis Popov, managing expert of the center of analytics and expertise of PSB.

At the same time, there is still tension in the labor market - this is evidenced by the accelerated growth of wages, said Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at FG Finam.

"In 2025, the problem of staff shortage is likely to persist, but the demand for workers may not grow as fast due to the expected slowdown in economic growth on the background of high interest rates and the announced normalization of fiscal policy," she explained.

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More, but less: economic growth will slow down to 1.5% in 2025