Experts made a forecast on key rate increase

On Friday, December 20, the last meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia (BoR) will be held this year. Experts gave their forecast on Monday, December 16, as to whether the regulator will raise the key rate.

According to Svetlana Sazanova, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, PhD in Economics, the Central Bank may raise the key rate to 23% or 25%. This is due to the Central Bank's conviction that this is the measure that is effective in fighting inflation.

"If the Central Bank follows its logic of maintaining price stability by monetary methods, as it declares, it may well raise the key rate, as they threatened, and up to 23%, and up to 25%", - said the expert in conversation with "Abzac".

She added that the increase in the key rate increases the costs of enterprises, resulting in even higher prices.

Economics professor Lazar Badalov expressed the opinion that the Bank of Russia may raise the key rate by 2 p.p. - up to 23%.

At the same time, according to the forecasts of Yevgeny Goldfein, honored economist of Russia, the rate may rise to 24%. He believes that the method of regulating price growth only by the key rate is outdated. A comprehensive approach is needed to counter inflation. It is about printing money at a faster rate than inflation, the economist believes.

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On December 16, during trading, the Moscow Exchange index fell below 2425 points for the first time since the end of March 2023. The stock market fall comes amid the consensus among analysts about the next increase in the key rate of the Central Bank on December 20, reports NSN.

Earlier in the day, the chairman of the party "Just Russia - For Truth" Sergei Mironov called for a change in the monetary policy of the Central Bank, making a temporary special lending rate for strategic enterprises and industries, reports 360.ru.

Earlier, on December 13, former head of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Sergei Dubinin said that the regulator may raise the key rate to 22% at the end of the meeting on December 20, RT reports. The former Central Bank head recalled that he had said many times that the increase in the key rate itself does not bring instant results in the fight against inflation, according to the website kp.ru.

Earlier, on November 28, Kirill Tremasov, Advisor to the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, said that the regulator will consider the issue of raising the key rate at a meeting on December 20. At the same time, Deputy President - Chairman of the Board of VTB Dmitry Pyanov said that the bank analysts predict an increase in the key rate to 23%.

November 19, head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that the reduction of the key rate in the absence of new shocks may begin next year, reports the agency of city news "Moscow".

The Central Bank of Russia's Board of Directors raised the key rate to 21% on October 25. Then, on November 19, Nabiullina said that if Russia does not face additional economic shocks, the regulator could start lowering the key rate in 2025.