Experts reported a possible increase in the key rate to a new record high

Analysts of major Russian banks and investment companies believe that the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will raise the key rate from 21% to 23% per annum at a meeting on December 20. This was reported by RBC on December 16.

"Raising the rate by 200 b.p., up to 23%, is expected by 23 out of 30 experts interviewed. Four more admit that the Central Bank may act more rigidly and raise the rate in December to 25% per annum at once. One expert expects the rate to be revised by 300 bp. - to 24%, two do not exclude that it may remain unchanged - 21%", - the edition encloses the data of the experts' forecast.

Provided that the data provided by analysts are confirmed, the rate hike in December will be the fourth consecutive rate hike. From December 2023 to July 2024, the key rate of the Central Bank did not change (16%).

With the increase in inflation, the regulator moved to increase it, and for several meetings the rate reached 21% per annum, which is a historical maximum. RBC suggests that in December the record may be renewed.

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Earlier, on December 13, the former head of the Central Bank (CB) of Russia, Sergei Dubinin, said that the regulator may raise the key rate to 22% at the end of the meeting on December 20. The former head of the Central Bank recalled that he had said many times that the increase in the key rate itself does not bring instant results in the fight against inflation.

Earlier, November 28, Advisor to the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Kirill Tremasov said that the regulator will consider the issue of raising the key rate at a meeting on December 20. At the same time, Deputy President - Chairman of the Board of VTB Dmitry Pianov said that the bank analysts predict an increase in the key rate to 23%.

On October 25, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia raised the key rate to 21%. Then, on November 19, Nabiullina said that if Russia does not face additional economic shocks, the regulator will be able to start lowering the key rate in 2025.