Syria may be in danger of disintegrating. And that's why

After the resignation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the country is in danger of disintegration. Several armed groups representing different players in the Middle East conflict are operating on its territory. Whether they will be able to keep Syria united or the country will be overwhelmed by a new period of civil war - in the material of "Izvestia".

Who owns the power in Syria

- At the moment, the leading force in Syria is the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia). Its offensive on Damascus led to the resignation of Bashar al-Assad and the establishment of a transitional government in Syria. It is headed by Mohammed al-Bashir - he previously led the Syrian Salvation Government, which is the civilian wing of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, in Idlib province.

- HTSH traces its history back to the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), the group was also discovered by the descendants of the "Islamic State" (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). However, the HTS now declares irreconcilability with these organizations and declares its intention to pursue a moderate policy towards religious and national minorities in Syria. The Turkish army has long supported the HTS. There is no certainty among experts that the HTS will follow a moderate path and will not return to its terrorist past.

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- The closest ally of the HTS is the Syrian National Army (SNA), a secular armed group also backed by Turkey. It identifies the Assad government, Kurds from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Islamist terrorists as its opponents. The SNA, along with the HTS , controls the most populated areas in northern, central, and southern Syria, including Damascus.

- Another secular militia, the Syrian Free Army (SFA), operates independently of the SNA. It is backed by the US and other Western countries. The FSA led its offensive on Damascus from the south and controls southern Syria along the Jordanian border.

Kurds and their formations

- With the transition of central power in Syria to the HTS and secular militias, the country's hostilities have not ended. The northeast is controlled by the Kurdish SDF, which grew out of self-defense militias and enjoys U.S. support. During Assad's rule, the Kurds declared their autonomy within Syria under the name Rojava, which has not been recognized. At the same time, the SDF fought actively against Islamist terrorists.

- Turkey and the Syrian rebels from the SNA, supported by it, oppose the actions of the SDS. Ankara accuses the Syrian Kurds of supporting the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which is recognized as a terrorist party in Turkey. The SNA militants quickly turned their weapons against the Kurds after Assad's resignation and launched an offensive against their positions. They have already taken control of the city of Manbij, one of the largest in northeastern Syria.

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And while the power system is being rebuilt, Kurdish units are losing city after city

- The territory occupied by the Kurds is the first to claim to be a large-scale war zone. The Kurds have shown mild loyalty to Assad and have been willing to maintain Syria's territorial integrity, content with autonomy. But Turkey's influence could radicalize them and force them to demand legal independence in addition to de facto independence.

What Israel claims

- Assad's departure has galvanized Israeli action toward the Golan Heights. This mountainous area is of strategic importance to both Damascus and Tel Aviv, and has been held by Israeli forces since 1967. Now they have advanced further and occupied a buffer zone that should remain demilitarized.

- Israel justifies its claim to the Golan Heights on security grounds. Tel Aviv fears that without control of this territory, Israel could be threatened not so much by the Syrian central government, which has not yet made any claims against the Jewish state, but by Iran and the groups it supports (we wrote in detail about relations between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah here). Previously, Tehran viewed Syria as a transit point on the way to Lebanon, where its Hezbollah allies operate. Israel is trying to prevent the organization of such a corridor.

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- The new government is also suspicious of Israel. The Islamist past of the groups operating in Damascus should make Tel Aviv nervous, so in addition to occupying the buffer zone, Syria's military infrastructure has been destroyed at the same time. This should strengthen Israel's position in case of attempts to establish contact with moderate forces. If Israel still sees a threat from Damascus, further military action on its part is not excluded, especially since the way to the Syrian capital from the Golan Heights is open.

Should we expect the collapse of Syria?

- Whether the change of power in Syria will lead to irreversible consequences depends on the new government. It now lacks the centralized institutions that Assad had at his disposal. The factions that replaced him have their differences on national and religious issues, which can be put aside at this stage, but as the new authorities gain strength, they will recall former differences.

- Turkey's influence on the factions that have seized power may prove to be a factor that will cause discord and complicate the situation. Explicitly targeting another state, implementing its policies and following its demands will not be welcomed by the other forces or the population. Ankara's support allowed the transitional government to come to Damascus, but has also become a compromise for those who do not want Turkey's intervention in Syria.

- While there are enough opponents of Turkish influence in most of the country, Ankara's rule is practically established in northern Syria. The aggravation of disagreements among the ruling groups may provoke Turkey to fully annex the province of Idlib, rich in hydrocarbons. Especially since this territory is close to the settlement of Kurds, with whom Ankara will continue to fight further.

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As the government changes hands, violent clashes between pro-Turkish militias and Kurds have erupted across the country

- The new government's promise to prevent persecution has so far held the balance in Syria. But if that promise is broken, Assad's Alawite supporters in the west of the country could assert themselves. They will have the moral authority to say that the new regime has only made things worse. If the Alawites are seriously involved in the formation of the new regime and are not left on the sidelines, this hotbed of instability will be extinguished. But this chance to start building a new state on an equal footing can be used only once.

- Some influence on the internal processes in Syria can also be exerted by the refugees returning to the country, whom the new authorities have called back from Turkey and Lebanon. The European authorities' ban on granting asylum will also bring back a certain part of the population. They will inevitably require involvement in the ongoing political processes, and the new government will have to provide such opportunities so as not to aggravate the situation. At the same time, many of the refugees may themselves have a negative attitude towards Islamist groups and their desire to gain a foothold in power.

In preparing the material, Izvestia communicated with and took into account the opinions of:

• Vladimir Akhmedov, senior researcher at the Center for the Study of General Problems of the Modern East, IV RAS;
• Dmitry Talal Brije, political scientist and Middle East expert;
• political scientist and Middle East expert Mais Kurbanov.