Analysts assumed the growth of the key rate up to 23%

The Central Bank will raise the key rate to 23% at the meeting on December 20 - half of the 28 analysts polled by Izvestia are sure of it. At the same time, another seven experts equally expect its growth by 2 p.p. or 1 p.p.. In addition, five analysts expect the key rate to rise only to 22%, according to Izvestia's consensus forecast.

Raising the key rate: why it is necessary and what it affects

The monetary tightening cycle is forecast to continue

Weekly price growth in Q3 averaged 7.7%, Gazprombank economist Pavel Biryukov explained the market's negative expectations. In December, the situation will not improve - before the holidays, consumption will remain at a high level, even despite the price increase, added economist Andrei Barkhota. Inflation at the end of the month may reach 9.2-9.6%.

The main factor in the price hike is the overheating of the economy, which causes consumption to outpace the output of goods and services in the country by 20%, explained economist Pavel Biryukov of Gazprombank.

Demand is still overtaking supply, which is difficult to grow against the backdrop of labor shortages, said Sovcombank analyst Mikhail Vasiliev. According to Rosstat at the end of November, unemployment reached a minimum of 2.3% - so the economy is literally short of "working hands".

Ilya Fedorov, Chief Economist of BKS Investment World, is sure that the decision on the key rate will also be influenced by the recent weakening of the ruble. According to Tradingview, the national currency has fallen 7% against the dollar over the month - it has been trading above 100 per dollar since November 20. Problems with the stability of the exchange rate will worsen inflationary expectations of the population - the Central Bank will definitely take this factor into account on December 20.

The regulator's rhetoric is also in favor of tightening monetary policy, said Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam. Following the results of the meeting on October 25, the Central Bank gave the toughest signal about further actions from possible. In this case, the medium-term forecast of the Bank of Russia lays the possibility of raising the rate to 22-23%.

Read more in the exclusive material of "Izvestia":

Final record: the market expects the key rate to rise to 23% in December