Large-tonnage problems: the heavy-duty truck market is in danger of collapse
Unlike passenger cars, whose sales are showing good growth, the truck market is showing a decline. According to experts' forecasts, it will only intensify next year. At the Comtrans-2024 exhibition, Russian and foreign manufacturers of trucks and vans showed new products that will soon be on sale. New brands are also expected to enter our market. Details - in the material of "Izvestia".
Up and down
According to the results of 11 months, the markets of light commercial vehicles (LCV) and medium- and large-capacity trucks (MCV and HCV) showed multidirectional dynamics. Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of the analytical agency "Avtostat" told about it within the framework of the Comtrans-2024 exhibition taking place in Moscow. Thus, sales of small delivery vans and light trucks from January to November increased by 26% compared to the same period last year: 100.3 thousand LCV models have been sold since the beginning of the year, as calculated in "Avtostat". At the same time, the segment of medium- and large-capacity vehicles showed a decrease of 12% compared to 11 months of 2023. From January to November, 115.6 trucks with GVW over 3.5 tons were sold.
Serial production of BAZ trucks will start in St. Petersburg next year
Unlike the passenger car market, where the share of brands from China has long exceeded 60%, the LCV segment shows the exact opposite picture: according to Avtostat, more than 90% of this market is occupied by domestic brands - GAZ, UAZ, Sollers and Lada.
- There are practically no Chinese brands on the Russian market of light commercial vehicles. This is due to the fact that, by their standards, our market is relatively small for them. In addition, in some cases Chinese automakers simply do not have models that would suit our customers, - said Sergei Udalov.
The picture is different in the MCV and HCV segments, points out Tatiana Arabadzhi, General Director of the National Agency for Industrial Information (NAPI). Here the share of "Chinese" is on average about 65%, and among long-haul tractors, dump trucks and chassis for construction equipment the share of brands from China varies from 73 to 80%. That is why, unlike the LCV segment, the medium- and large-capacity truck market is more dependent on external factors such as the ruble exchange rate, customs payments and the size of the utilization fee, she notes.
This, of course, has an impact on sales of heavy equipment, notes the general director of NAPI. However, other factors are "to blame" for the current decline in the number of sold MCV and HCV models, the expert emphasizes.
- Last year and the year before last there was a rush demand for trucks - sales records from the post-Soviet times were broken. Now we see a certain pullback," said Tatiana Arabadzhi.
Such different perspectives
Taking into account the results of 11 months, experts assess the prospects of the truck transportation market in Russia in different ways. According to Sergey Udalov, light commercial models have a good potential for growth next year.
- In the base scenario, we expect the LCV market to grow by about 5% - 118 thousand units in 2025. In the optimistic scenario, sales may reach 128 thousand cars: +14% to this year, - he predicts.
However, the expert did not rule out a pessimistic development of events, which implied a decrease in the number of vans sold by 5% - to about 106 thousand units.
The electric Foton Toano has a range of 300 km
The trend contributing to the increase in sales, the executive director of "Avtostat" calls a large share of old LCV models in our country. Thus, according to the analytical agency, 34% of the fleet of vans are cars older than 20 years. The share of cars aged 11-20 years accounts for 40% of the LCV fleet, 13% are trucks aged 6-10 years. The "fresh" models up to five years old account for 9% of all vans, and cars up to three years old make up only 5% of the fleet of light commercial vehicles.
It is the high share of "age" vehicles that can become a driving force for fleet renewal and will help to increase sales, believes Sergei Udalov. At the same time, the factor that hinders the growth of LCV market, he calls high key rate, which leads to an increase in payments on loans and leasing. The expert emphasizes that these are the schemes that are most often used to purchase commercial vehicles.
As for sales of heavy trucks, according to Tatiana Arabadzhi, the prospects for this segment of the car market next year are not the brightest. NAPI has also prepared three possible scenarios for the development of events, with two of them suggesting a further decline in the number of trucks sold.
- In the base scenario, the MCV and HCV market is expected to decline to about 110 thousand vehicles in 2025, and in the negative scenario - to 100 thousand units. In the optimistic scenario it is planned that the volume of trucks sold will amount to 120 thousand units, - he shared his forecasts.
At the same time, the latter option is possible only if the key rate is reduced, said the Director General of NAPI. In this segment of the car market the size of monthly payments on leasing or credit is the main factor determining the total sales volume, she emphasized.
Placer of novelties
Despite the rather vague prospects for the market of light and especially heavy duty truck models, Russian and foreign automakers presented at Comtrans-2024 a whole lot of novelties that may appear in our country next year.
Thus, the main premiere at the stand of the Modern Transportation Technologies group of companies was the Gazelle NN 4×4 in the minivan version. The transmission of the vehicle is identical to the all-wheel drive "Sobol". However, for the first time Gazelle is certified not by the "bus" category M2, but by the "passenger" category - M1. This allowed not to equip the seven-seat minivan with a tachograph mandatory for minibuses. In addition, the buyers of this car are free from the obligation to pass the inspection procedure twice a year. It is expected that serial production of this version of Gazelle will start in the first quarter of next year.
One of the main premieres of the exhibition was Gazelle NN 4×4 in minivan version
Also at the company's stand were shown a new school bus with height-adjustable three-point safety belts, which allow to safely fasten a child of any height and age. The school minibus is also equipped with an alko-lock, which does not allow the driver to start the engine without a sobriety test. In addition to this model, Modern Transportation Technologies showed several other new versions of buses and trucks.
MB RUS presented two new modifications of the Foton Toano van - a fully electric version, as well as an eight-seat minibus. Electric Toano EV, characterized by a new grille, a different shape of ampere and LED headlights, is equipped with a 177-horsepower electric motor and has a range of 300 km. Depending on the type of charging, the van's battery recharge time varies from 40 minutes to 5.5 hours. Eight-seat van, with additional noise and vibration insulation, USB-sockets, as well as additional heater and heater in the passenger compartment is perceived as a VIP-shuttle.
MB RUS also demonstrated an ice cream van on Forland 3 chassis. It is able to maintain the air temperature in the body in the range of minus 20-33 degrees for 18 hours. It is noteworthy that the freezing of special stainless steel plates is performed from a 380V power supply during overnight parking. And the refrigeration unit itself is specially designed and manufactured in Russia.
Production of Altai Trucks trucks is established in the Novgorod region by the method of large-unit assembly
At the Comtrans-2024 exhibition there was a presentation of BAZ trucks, serial production of which will start next year. The truck is equipped with a 367 hp YaMZ diesel engine with a torque of 1800 Nm. The suspension is independent, inter-axle and inter-wheel locks are provided. The gross weight of the truck is 36 tons, payload is 22 tons.
According to Mikhail Veselkov, head of the transport axles group of the chief designer's department of Romanov JSC (which produces these trucks), the localization level of the trucks is 97%. The trucks are equipped with domestic engines, gearboxes and axles, it is planned to produce a whole line of all-wheel drive trucks, including chassis, tractors and dump trucks.
- At the beginning of next year we intend to pass certification of these vehicles. In the second half of the year we plan to mass produce them at the plant in St. Petersburg," he told Izvestia.
Another new domestic brand presented at the exhibition is Altai Trucks. The range of trucks includes models with GVW from 3.5 to 50 tons, which are licensed analogs of Chinese Wanshan trucks. According to the company's representatives, the production of the vehicles in late November was established in the Novgorod region, at "one of the military plants". Now the vehicles, assembled from foreign components by the method of large-scale assembly, are undergoing certification. The start of sales is scheduled for the middle of next year.
Another major domestic manufacturer of commercial vehicles Sollers did not take part in the Comtrans-2024 exhibition. However, earlier the company showed 13 new models of vans and trucks within a special presentation, the production and sales of which will start in Russia next year.
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