Analyst forecasts yuan/ruble exchange rate in 2025

In 2025, the yuan may trade in the range of 13.6-14.5 rubles, according to Alina Poptsova, stock market analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company. She told Izvestia on December 11.

According to Mosbirzh, at 14:50 Moscow time, the rate of the Chinese currency almost reached 13.9 rubles.

Poptsova noted that the reduction of China's foreign exchange reserves reduces China's flexibility in the possibility of stabilizing the yuan exchange rate through reserves. Thus, for the period 2015-2024, foreign exchange reserves excluding gold decreased by 18.6%.

According to the expert, the pressure on the yuan may intensify for at least two reasons. First, investors are cautious because of the expected introduction of duties of 60% on imports of Chinese goods by the US.

"RBC Global Asset Management estimates that this could take 1.6% away from China's real GDP growth two years after the restrictions are imposed. On the other hand, the Communist Party may respond by announcing an even broader and bolder stimulus package, which will help offset the effect of the trade war and revitalize domestic consumption," Poptsova said.

In addition, the People's Bank of China may continue easing monetary policy to support consumers and reduce the debt burden on provincial governments, the expert added. This is a factor of weakening of the Chinese national currency. The pressure on the yuan in such a case may intensify if the US Federal Reserve slows down the pace in cutting rates, the expert explained.

"USD/CNH (dollar to yuan. - Ed.) next year is likely to average around 7.25, CNY/RUB (yuan to ruble. - Ed.) taking into account the fundamentally weak positions of the ruble will be traded within 13.6-14.5," Poptsova concluded.

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Earlier, December 6, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that there is no room for a serious weakening of the ruble. In his opinion, the dollar rate at the end of the next year, 2025, will be approximately 112-115 rubles. At the same time, he admitted that so far some weakening of the national currency is indeed present, but no surprises are expected: the ruble exchange rate will fluctuate depending on the situation.