Europe is in for a series of political crises after France and Germany. And that's why

The political crisis in France came just a month after the collapse of the ruling "traffic light" coalition in Germany. The turmoil in both countries was caused by several factors, including problems with budget harmonization. In both countries, the ratings of the leaders - Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Emmanuel Macron - have been falling recently. Why the wave of political conflicts threatens the whole Europe and how Donald Trump's return to the White House and the conflict in Ukraine will affect it - in the material of "Izvestia".

Why the governments of Germany and France collapsed

- In the origin of the political crises of Germany and France have common features. In both cases, the reason for disagreement was the adoption of the budget for the next year. The ruling circles could not agree on which expenditures should be cut in order to avoid building up debt and still fulfill their commitments to their constituencies. The EU's two largest economies lacked the funds to meet the demands of all parties and avoid a deadlock before the new year.

- Both crises have been accompanied by a drop in the ratings of the nations' top leaders. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now just outside the top 20 most popular politicians in Germany, while French President Emmanuel Macron has the approval of less than a quarter of the population. Having lost popular support, neither of them was able to press their political opponents at a critical moment to achieve their goals and avoid calls for resignation.

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- The factor of far-right forces was also common. By alienating part of the electorate in both Germany and France, they have undercut the foundations on which the mainstream parties stood. Until seven years ago, the far right played no significant role and won only a handful of seats in parliaments. Since then, they have significantly increased their parliamentary shares, leaving their rivals with less room for maneuver. The result is a weak three-party coalition in Germany and a president without a parliamentary majority in France. If the mandates of the Alternative for Germany and the National Association could have been evenly distributed among the other parliamentary parties, the political system in both countries would have been much more stable.

- Germany and France even had a coincidental moment when the influence of the far-right was talked about in all seriousness. The ruling forces did not achieve a satisfactory result for them in the last elections to the European Parliament and lost some of their domestic legitimacy (we wrote more about the election results here). However, the reaction to what happened in the two countries was different. While France immediately held snap elections, Germany actually had a six-month postponement.

- There are still enough differences in the way the two countries came to the current unenviable situation. They have markedly different polities and conditions in which the crises arose. While Germany still has a chance to have a working government following the February elections, France will still have a weak president and a parliament divided into three. Macron has announced he will not step down before his term ends in 2027, and a new vote in the national assembly will not take place until the summer of 2025 at the earliest. But the fact that both countries have reached the same impasse suggests that the rest of Europe risks ending up in the same place.

What is the cause of the crises

- The economic background of the political cataclysms of France and Germany, which made insoluble the disagreement on the budget, is not only characteristic of them. At the heart of it lies the common policy of the European Union, aimed not at protecting its own national interests, but at lobbying for the tasks set by the United States. Following American interests eventually leads to failures in its own socio-economic development, which is expressed in protest moods inside Europe.

- Under US pressure, deindustrialization and the rejection of cheap Russian energy resources, which made European industry competitive on the world market, are taking place. In return, Europe is buying more expensive raw materials from the U.S., which negatively affects the socio-economic development of the European region, which is used to years of economic prosperity based on oil and gas from Russia.

- The situation for Europe is exacerbated by the prostration in which it found itself after the election of US President Donald Trump. There is still a period of uncertainty, as Brussels cannot understand what exactly will be the policy of the new head of the White House. His unpredictability scares Europeans, remembering his first term, during which Trump tried to force Europe to pay more for defense. Since then, the economic situation on the continent has worsened, and the politician's demands on allies have not changed.

- Europe will need to find more funds for military production, especially since it also does not want to cut its support for Ukraine. However, if the crisis in Germany and France drags on, they will still have to reduce the flow of funds to Kiev, especially since this is a demand of the right-wing forces that are increasing their influence.

Where to wait for the next political collisions

- In the near future, we should expect a negative impact of the economy on the social and humanitarian situation in Europe, if only because the new composition of the European Commission, which began work on December 1, has become even more anti-Russian and U.S.-oriented. As long as Ursula von der Leyen remains at the head of the European bloc, crises in Europe's leading countries will continue to grow.

- The general political turbulence in Europe is already expressed not only in the form of governmental crises in France and Germany. For example, the situation is similar in Romania, where the first round of the presidential election was won by the nationally-oriented candidate Calin Georgescu, who is opposed by the parliamentary parties. Fierce political discussions are taking place in Italy, Slovakia, Hungary and a number of other states.

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- Germany and France, as the two leaders of the continent, are a showcase for the rest of the countries, from where the crisis phenomena will spread further and become widespread. Besides, they are also economic donors, whose problems will quickly affect the countries that use European subsidies. Analysts note that the next in line may be Poland, where an even more complex governing coalition has been built than the one that existed in Germany and has not served its full term.

When preparing the material, Izvestia communicated with and took into account the opinions of:

• Ivan Mezyukho, political scientist, chairman of the Crimean regional public organization "Center for Political Enlightenment";
• French political scientist and philosopher Emmanuel Leroy.