Analyst predicted the ruble exchange rate in early 2025

In early 2025, the ruble exchange rate may stabilize within the range of 102-105 per dollar, Alina Poptsova, stock market analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, told Izvestia on December 5.

The Russian Central Bank set the official rate of the U.S. currency for December 5 at the level of 104.2361 rubles, euro - 110.2041, yuan - 14.2565. At the same time, according to Moskbirzh, the yuan is trading around Br14.

According to Poptsova, the ruble may remain under pressure in December and early 2025. This will be affected, among other things, by higher inflation, problems with the receipt of foreign currency proceeds from exporters, and a decline in global oil prices.

"In early 2025, the ruble exchange rate may stabilize within 102-105 per US dollar as increased demand for foreign currency saturates, banks adapt to new sanctions restrictions and demand for imported goods declines after the end of the holiday season. In a pair with the yuan, the ruble is likely to fluctuate near 14," the expert said.

According to the analyst, the impact of the key rate on the ruble in the current environment is reduced, as the Russian market is detached from international platforms, and the carry trade mechanism is difficult.

"Inside the economy, high real rates support interest in ruble assets, especially deposits and money market instruments," she pointed out.

At the same time, Poptsova suggested that partial strengthening of the exchange rate is possible if the geopolitical agenda improves, global oil prices rise and cross-border payments are established.

"However, in the foreseeable future, these scenarios are unlikely," the analyst concluded.

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Earlier, November 28, finance and investment expert, founder of the financial club "Multiplier" Evan Golovanov suggested that the dollar may trade at around Br96-98 at the end of winter. At the same time, the expert noted that in the long term there is a trend for further weakening of the ruble.