Experts assessed the main trends in the real estate market

In 2024, the volume of mortgage loans issued will be less than last year, but the overall figures will remain at a fairly high level. This was told by the experts of Domklika, who reviewed the dynamics of indicators in the field of housing demand based on the volume of mortgage loans issued by Sber and their distribution between the markets of new buildings, ready housing and individual construction.

"A number of restrictions in the segment of preferential lending, as well as the retention of the key rate at a barrier level, served to reduce demand for mortgages. According to preliminary data, in 2024, the volume of mortgage issuance will amount to about 5 trillion rubles, which is significantly behind the figures of the record year 2023 (7.8 trillion rubles). Nevertheless, the year cannot be called a poor year: if we consider the dynamics over the last decade, 2024 is among the top three. For comparison: in 2020, 4.5 trillion rubles were issued, and before it the volume of issuance did not exceed 3 trillion rubles," said Alexei Leipi, Director of Sberbank's Domklik division.

At the same time, as a result of changes in the mortgage market, according to experts, the share of new buildings in the mortgage structure increased to 33%. These indicators remain stable throughout the fall. Analysts noted that in the second half of the year "Family Mortgage" became the main driver of demand in the primary market: the share of loans issued under the program amounted to about 80% of loans for new buildings.

In the second half of the year, the share of the secondary market grew significantly, amounting to 63%, while at the end of the first half of the year the share of ready housing amounted to a minimum of 31%. The number of transactions remains stable throughout almost the whole year: from January to October the number of issuances was in the range of 27-35 thousand transactions per month.

Compared to the market of new buildings, the decline in the segment of housing construction in the middle of the year was much more significant: in July, the number of issuances amounted to about 2.5 thousand transactions, which corresponds to the level of the second half of 2022. The share in the total number of issuances decreased from approximately 20% to 5%.